Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli prediction
The Bundesliga returns to Signal Iduna Park on Saturday, 17 January 2026 (kick-off 5:30 GMT+3) as Borussia Dortmund host FC St. Pauli in Matchday 18. The encounter presents a clear contrast in league positions and recent form: Borussia Dortmund occupy second place with 36 points, having registered ten wins, six draws and a single defeat, and a goal difference of 32:15. St. Pauli lie 17th with 12 points, three wins, three draws and nine defeats and a 13:26 goal record. Dortmund’s imperious home form — six wins and two draws from eight fixtures — underlines their status as firm favourites, whereas St. Pauli have managed only one away victory, two draws and five defeats on the road.
Recent meetings have produced competitive encounters; the last direct meeting finished in a 3:3 draw. Across the last five head-to-heads in all competitions, Dortmund have won three, St. Pauli one, with one draw. Current momentum also favours the hosts: Dortmund are unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions (two wins, three draws), while St. Pauli have recorded one win, three draws and one defeat in their last five. Dortmund arrive having closed their previous block with a convincing 3:0 home victory over Werder Bremen. St. Pauli’s most recent outing resulted in a 1:2 away loss at VfL Wolfsburg.
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Main Betting Tip: HC -1 Dortmund
Our primary betting prediction is a Handicap -1 home win for Borussia Dortmund. The statistical argument is straightforward: Dortmund sit significantly higher in the table, possess a superior goal difference and display an excellent record at Signal Iduna Park this season (6 wins, 2 draws, 0 defeats). Niko Kovač’s side is difficult to break down at home and has shown resilience in recent weeks, remaining unbeaten in their last five matches. Conversely, Alexander Blessin’s St. Pauli have struggled for consistency, particularly away from home, where they have secured only one victory and conceded more than they have scored. Taking into account form, squad depth, and the psychological advantage of playing at Dortmund’s stadium, the most probable outcome is a Dortmund victory.
Betting Tip 2: Both teams score? No
We predict that both teams will not score (Both teams score? No). The rationale stems from Dortmund’s defensive solidity this season — the hosts have conceded just 15 goals in 17 league matches — and their capacity to control games at home. St. Pauli have struggled to convert chances consistently and their away offensive record is modest. While St. Pauli are capable of moments of threat (as recent direct encounters indicate), the balance of probability favours a match in which Dortmund score but limit or prevent St. Pauli from netting.
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Betting Tip 3: Correct score: 2:0
Finally, our third prediction is the correct score 2:0 in favour of Borussia Dortmund. This outcome reflects a combination of Dortmund’s scoring ability at home and the likelihood that they will keep a clean sheet against an away side that struggles for penetration. A 2:0 result represents a realistic, conservative projection consistent with the expectation of a measured home victory rather than a high-scoring rout. The supplied information did not include explicit odds for the correct score; please check bookmakers for the available price on 2:0.
Statistics for Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli
Borussia Dortmund team news!
Borussia Dortmund, coached by Niko Kovač, have compiled 36 points from 17 league games (10 wins, 6 draws, 1 defeat) and a goal tally of 32 for and 15 against. The club’s home record is particularly impressive: 6 wins, 2 draws and no defeats. Under Kovač, Dortmund have blended attacking verve with improved defensive discipline, producing an unbeaten run across their last five matches in all competitions (two wins and three draws). Squad depth and the tactical stability implemented by the coach will be decisive at Signal Iduna Park.
FC St. Pauli team news!
FC St. Pauli, led by Alexander Blessin, occupy 17th position with 12 points (3 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats) and a goal tally of 13:26. Their away record shows vulnerability — one win, two draws and five defeats — and they have struggled to convert opportunities consistently on the road. Their recent form comprises one win, three draws and one defeat from their last five matches, evidencing sporadic resilience but not the consistency required to challenge a top-side away from home.
H2H statistics
The head-to-head record across the last five meetings favours Borussia Dortmund: 3 wins for Dortmund, 1 draw and 1 win for FC St. Pauli. The most recent direct encounter concluded as a 3:3 draw, demonstrating occasional offensive potency from both sides in isolated instances. However, the broader H2H trend indicates Dortmund’s superiority in the matchup over multiple meetings.
Last results Borussia Dortmund
In their last five matches across all competitions, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 2 wins and 3 draws, remaining unbeaten in that span. Their current form is therefore stable and without a defeat in five outings, which strengthens their psychological and tactical position heading into this fixture.
Last results FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli’s last five matches across all competitions have yielded 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat. This pattern denotes a mixed run of results: some resilience and capability to salvage points, but an absence of momentum and relatively few victories.
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Conclusion
Borussia Dortmund enter this fixture as clear favourites. They possess superior league standing, better goal differential, a strong home record and a recent unbeaten run. FC St. Pauli, while capable of organised performances under Alexander Blessin, lacks the away potency and consistency necessary to threaten Dortmund at Signal Iduna Park. Accordingly, the recommended primary outcome is a Handicap -1 Dortmund home victory. Complementary selections — Both teams do not score (No), and a correct score prediction of 2:0 — aligns with the expectation of a controlled, narrow Dortmund win.
