Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain Prediction
The Champions League play-off between AS Monaco and Paris Saint-Germain will take place on Tuesday, 17.02.2026 at 23:00, with Stade Louis II hosting what promises to be a high-stakes encounter. This first-leg fixture pits a defensively compact Monaco side against a Paris Saint-Germain team that has displayed considerable attacking potency this season. With AS Monaco sitting on 10 points and occupying 21st position in their domestic context, and Paris Saint-Germain on 14 points and 11th, the balance on paper appears to favor the visitors, yet the recent domestic and head-to-head evidence suggests a contest that could provide goals and narrative twists. Below follows a considered betting tip and tactical preview of the match.
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Main Tip: PSG Win – Tip 2
Paris Saint-Germain enter this fixture with a superior goalscoring record (21:11) and a more prolific recent form, having registered three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five matches. Although AS Monaco have the advantage of home conditions at Stade Louis II and demonstrated resilience with a recent 3:1 victory over FC Nantes, PSG’s attacking resources under coach Luis Enrique make them the more likely side to secure victory in a one-off knockout setting. PSG’s away record in the domestic phase (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat) indicates they can perform on the road, and the head-to-head sample — three wins to PSG in the last five meetings — further underlines their psychological and tactical edge. Paripesa offers a PSG win at 1.62.
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Betting Tip 2: Both teams score? Yes
Given Monaco’s mixed defensive record (goals conceded 14) and PSG’s pronounced attacking threat (21 goals scored), the probability of both sides finding the net is considerable. Monaco have shown they can produce goals from open play and set pieces, demonstrated most recently by a 3:1 win, while PSG have the firepower to breach most backlines even on foreign soil. Tactical tendencies also support a both-teams-to-score outcome: Monaco under Sébastien Pocognoli are likely to adopt a proactive approach at home to unsettle PSG early, whereas Luis Enrique’s side are predisposed to press for openings and quick transitions, which can leave them exposed at the back. Paripesa lists the Both Teams To Score — Yes market at 1.60, making this an attractive supplementary selection alongside the main away-win tip.
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Betting Tip 3: Over 3.5 goals
The expectation of multiple goals is supported by recent encounters between the clubs and their current scoring and defensive metrics. PSG’s propensity to score freely combined with Monaco’s willingness to engage offensively at home suggests a match that could surpass the 3.5 goals threshold. Moreover, the last direct meeting produced a 1:0 result for Monaco, but the broader H2H sample and the teams’ most recent domestic matches (Monaco scoring three in their latest home game, PSG conceding three in their latest away fixture) imply that defensive frailties and attacking efficiency could converge to produce a high-scoring contest.
Statistics for AS Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain
AS Monaco team news!
Coach: Sébastien Pocognoli. AS Monaco have accumulated 10 points, reflecting a league record of 2 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats, with a goal tally of 8 scored and 14 conceded. At home, Monaco’s record stands at 1 win, 3 draws and no defeats, indicating a capacity to be difficult to beat at Stade Louis II. The manager Sébastien Pocognoli will be aware that his side’s conservative home form provides a platform from which to challenge PSG, and that defensive organisation will be a priority while seeking to exploit counterattacking opportunities. Monaco’s recent form shows two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five competitive matches; the team arrives with confidence after a convincing 3:1 home victory in their most recent fixture.
Paris Saint-Germain team news!
Coach: Luis Enrique. Paris Saint-Germain sit on 14 points with a domestic record of 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, and a strong goals for/against of 21:11. Their away record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat signals that they can deliver results away from home, though they have shown vulnerability on occasion. Under Luis Enrique, PSG have combined attacking ambition with tactical fluidity, producing three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five matches. Their most recent outing resulted in a 1:3 away loss to Stade Rennais, a result that may have exposed defensive lapses but should also sharpen their response in a Champions League setting.
H2H statistics
Across the last five meetings in all competitions between AS Monaco and Paris Saint-Germain, PSG have won three times, Monaco have recorded one victory and there has been one draw. The most recent direct meeting concluded with a 1:0 home success for AS Monaco, demonstrating that while PSG hold the superior overall recent record, Monaco are capable of producing tactical performances to limit and frustrate the Parisians.
Last results AS Monaco
In their last five competitive matches, AS Monaco have produced two wins, two draws and one defeat. This sequence reflects a side that is difficult to break down at home and one that has found the net on multiple occasions in recent fixtures. Their current form suggests a team organised under Pocognoli and able to secure points through resilience and occasional offensive bursts.
Last results Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain’s last five matches show a return of three wins, one draw and one defeat. This form underlines PSG’s capacity to impose themselves offensively and to accumulate positive results, although the solitary defeat in that sequence — coming away from home — indicates that their defensive reliability is not absolute and that they remain vulnerable at times.
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Conclusion
In conclusion, Paris Saint-Germain emerge as the favourites for this Champions League first-leg tie by virtue of superior attacking statistics, recent positive form and a favourable head-to-head record over the most recent meetings. Nevertheless, AS Monaco’s home resilience and the unpredictable nature of knockout football counsel a degree of prudence. Our principal betting tip is an away win for Paris Saint-Germain, supported by the complementary selections that both teams will score and that the match will produce more than 3.5 goals.
