Newcastle vs Qarabag Prediction
The Champions League play-off tie between Newcastle United and Qarabağ FK is scheduled for Tuesday, 24 February 2026 at 23:00 at St James’ Park. This fixture carries significant weight as both clubs aim to progress in the continental competition; Newcastle arrive as favourites on paper given recent form, squad resources and the advantage of playing at home. The contest is set within the second leg of the play-offs and will be overseen by managers Eddie Howe (Newcastle United) and Qurban Qurbanov (Qarabağ FK).
Newcastle’s home record in the competition reads 3 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat. Qarabağ have accrued from 3 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats, scoring 13 and conceding 21; their away record shows 1 win and 3 defeats. The last direct meeting between these sides resulted in a convincing 6-1 victory for Newcastle away from home, leaving little doubt about the English side’s capacity to score goals against Qarabağ. Given these factors, the outlook favours Newcastle to secure victory in this encounter.
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Main Tip: Under 3.5 Goals
For our main tip, we are recommending under 3.5 goals is the advised market selection. While the first meeting was high scoring, the context of this match (a decisive play-off leg at St James’ Park) encourages a more tactical and controlled approach from Newcastle, who will seek to protect their advantage and manage the game tempo. Qarabağ, for their part, may adopt a more conservative posture when facing a superior opponent on the road, aiming for careful phases rather than open-end exchanges. These factors increase the likelihood of a match containing fewer than four goals. The market indicated by the preview is Under 3.5 goals. The odds for this market is 2.11on Paripesa.
Betting Tip 2: Both teams score? Yes
Both teams to score is a plausible secondary prediction. Although Newcastle have been relatively solid defensively, Qarabağ have shown they can find the net in this campaign and managed to score against stronger opposition; moreover, the previous 6-1 encounter demonstrates Qarabağ’s ability to both concede and score in the same fixture. Newcastle’s attacking tendencies under Eddie Howe often create openings that visiting sides can exploit on transitional phases, meaning that Qarabağ are likely to find at least one goal in this tie. The best listed odd for Both Teams To Score — Yes at Paripesa is 1.88, which provides reasonable value considering the attacking records and the probability of Qarabağ registering a goal.
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Betting Tip 3: Newcastle Win – Tip 1
Newcastle United are the clear favourites for this match. The combination of superior defensive record (7 goals conceded versus Qarabağ’s 21 conceded), the home advantage at St James’ Park and the psychological edge from the recent 6-1 head-to-head victory underpin this view. Eddie Howe’s side possess greater squad depth and have demonstrated consistent offensive output across the group stage. The best available odd on the 1×2 market for a Newcastle win is currently listed at Paripesa at 1.14. Given the disparity between the two sides and the home context, a straight home victory is the principal betting prediction for this fixture.
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Statistics for Newcastle United vs Qarabağ FK
This section summarises key statistical indicators and contextual information relevant to the encounter. Newcastle’s goal difference (+10 in the group) and home form (three wins and a single defeat) point to a team in control of its continental destiny at St James’ Park. Qarabağ’s away record (one win and three defeats) and their negative goal difference (13 scored, 21 conceded) underline defensive vulnerabilities that Newcastle can exploit. The disparity in clean-sheet frequency and goals conceded is the most telling statistic in favour of the hosts.
Newcastle United team news!
Newcastle United, managed by Eddie Howe, arrive with momentum from recent domestic and continental fixtures, notwithstanding a narrow 1-2 away defeat to Manchester City in their latest outing. Howe’s tactical setup typically emphasises structured pressing, quick transitions and effective use of width, which should trouble Qarabağ’s defensive unit. Key issues for Newcastle will be managing squad rotation to maintain energy levels and limiting exposure to counter-attacks. At home, Newcastle’s attack has been productive, and Howe will likely field a side capable of both taking the initiative and controlling possession.
Qarabağ FK team news!
Qarabağ FK, led by Qurban Qurbanov, must approach this match with tactical pragmatism. The team has shown resilience in certain fixtures but has struggled defensively in the continental campaign, as indicated by the higher goals conceded tally. Qurbanov’s men will need to balance their desire to score with a disciplined defensive shape in order to avoid being overwhelmed by Newcastle’s attack. Qarabağ’s away performances have been inconsistent, and their ability to maintain concentration for the full 90 minutes will be decisive if they are to avoid a repeat of the heavy loss suffered in the previous meeting.
H2H statistics
The head-to-head record between the two clubs is minimal but decisive: in the last direct meeting Newcastle won 6-1 away at Qarabağ. That single meeting is representative in this context as it demonstrates Newcastle’s capacity to break down Qarabağ’s defence on multiple occasions. Overall H2H record (last 1 meeting): Newcastle 1 win, 0 draws, Qarabağ 0 wins.
Last results Newcastle United
In their most recent five matches across all competitions, Newcastle United have recorded 3 wins and 2 defeats, with no draws. The current form indicates a side capable of producing victories while occasionally suffering narrow losses when challenged by top-level opposition. The 1-2 defeat to Manchester City in the last match is consistent with a team that competes but can be marginally outplayed by elite opponents.
Last results Qarabağ FK
Qarabağ FK’s last five matches in all competitions show a similar pattern: 3 wins and 2 defeats, with no draws. This suggests that Qarabağ can be effective in certain matchups but lack the consistency at this level to avoid heavy reversals against stronger sides, as evidenced by the large margin in their most recent meeting with Newcastle.
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Conclusion
In conclusion, Newcastle United enter this Champions League play-off fixture as clear favourites. Factors in their favour include an advantageous home record, superior defensive statistics, recent head-to-head dominance and the managerial stability provided by Eddie Howe. Qarabağ FK will aim to be organised and disciplined under Qurban Qurbanov, but their defensive frailties and inconsistent away performances make an upset unlikely. The recommended outcome remains a under 3.5 goals, both teams to score-yes and a Newcastle United victory.
