Qarabag vs Newcastle Prediction
The UEFA Champions League play-off between Qarabağ FK and Newcastle United is scheduled for Wednesday, 18 February 2026 at 20:45 at the Tofig Bakhramov Stadium. This fixture represents the first-legged encounter in the play-offs phase of the competition and pits Azerbaijani champions Qarabağ FK against an English Premier League side managed by Eddie Howe. The encounter provides an intriguing contrast in styles and recent form and will be decisive in setting the tone for the return leg. Below follows a detailed preview and considered betting recommendations for this meeting.
Check out our UCL predictions as Europe’s elite club competition returns this week.
Main Tip: Both Teams To Score? Yes
Despite Newcastle’s favourable defensive statistics overall, Qarabağ possess attacking players capable of troubling visiting defences, particularly at home in European competition where they frequently adopt a positive approach. Newcastle’s forward line has demonstrated potency during the season, but their defensive lapses, especially in moments of transition, make it plausible that Qarabağ will find the net. Therefore, a Both Teams to Score selection for Yes is justified by the likelihood of Newcastle scoring while conceding at least once, with odds quoted at 1.90 for this option on Betwinner.
Betting Tip 2: Newcastle Win – Tip 2
Newcastle United approach this tie with superior overall numbers in the season-to-date data: 14 points, a +10 goal difference (17:7), and a record that demonstrates relative defensive solidity. Qarabağ, although competitive at home, have conceded more goals than they have scored (13:21) and occupy a lower position in their domestic table. Eddie Howe’s side possess greater firepower and tactical cohesion on their travels, and their recent away performances suggest they can take a result in a hostile atmosphere. Given these considerations, the most likely outcome is an away victory for Newcastle United. The odds for this outcome is quoted as 1.45 on Betwinner.
Our straight win prediction page should be your go-to reference when you are in search of teams that could win within regulation time.
Betting Tip 3: Under 3.5 Goals
While both teams are capable of goal-scoring, the combination of Newcastle’s organised defensive framework under Eddie Howe and Qarabağ’s tendency in recent competitive matches to balance attack with caution suggests a closely contested encounter. Knockout-stage ties, especially in the first leg, often produce conservative approaches from at least one side as managers prioritise defensive stability and away-goal considerations. Consequently, Under 3.5 goals is the recommended selection for this fixture.
Statistics for Qarabağ FK vs Newcastle United
Qarabağ FK team news!
Qarabağ, managed by Qurban Qurbanov, arrive at this fixture with 10 points in their domestic context as presented and a season record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats, with goals scored and conceded at 13:21. Their home record shows some solidity: 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat at the Tofig Bakhramov Stadium this season. Under Qurbanov, Qarabağ often rely on disciplined organisation and set-piece opportunities to offset the physical and technical advantages of higher-ranked opponents. Recent form indicates a mixture of results, but the team’s ability to find goals at home and to manage the tempo can make them a difficult side to break down, particularly in front of their supporters. Squad selection and any minor injuries or suspensions would further define their approach, though none were specified in the data provided.
Newcastle United team news!
Newcastle United, under the stewardship of Eddie Howe, appear in stronger statistical condition with 14 points, a record of 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats and a goal tally of 17:7. Their away record is recorded as 1 win, 2 draws and 1 defeat, demonstrating an ability to take results on the road. Howe’s team are typically well-drilled defensively while offering clear attacking patterns through quick transitions and set-piece threats. Their most recent outing ended in a 3:1 away victory against Aston Villa, which should underpin confidence, though inconsistency in recent results (two wins and three defeats across five matches) suggests that performance levels can vary. Tactical discipline and selective pressing can be expected from Newcastle in this fixture.
H2H statistics
There are no historical head-to-head meetings between Qarabağ FK and Newcastle United in official competition. The two clubs have not met previously, so no direct comparative record exists to inform tactical matchups or psychological advantages derived from prior encounters.
Last results Qarabağ FK
In their last five matches across all competitions, Qarabağ FK have recorded 3 wins and 2 defeats, with no draws. This recent run suggests a positive momentum in terms of securing victories, though the absence of draws implies matches that tend to be decisive and potentially open. Their current form, marked by those wins interspersed with setbacks, indicates a team capable of strong performances but also one vulnerable to lapses.
Last results Newcastle United
In their previous five outings in all competitions, Newcastle United have compiled 2 wins and 3 defeats, with no draws. The pattern reveals inconsistency: they are capable of registering convincing victories yet are also liable to suffer setbacks. The overall form suggests a side that, while possessing quality, must manage variability in performance levels to establish control in knockout ties.
TIP: Download Telegram before you click here!
Conclusion
Newcastle United enter this Champions League play-off first leg as the favourites. Their superior goal difference, higher points tally and the tactical clarity imparted by Eddie Howe make them the more probable victors. Qarabağ FK’s home resilience and the leadership of Qurban Qurbanov, however, mean the encounter is unlikely to be straightforward. Taking into account form, squad tendencies and the typical conservatism of first legs in knockout football, we reckon both teams will score as our primary tip, a narrow away victory for Newcastle with both teams scoring and under 3.5 total goals is the most balanced forecast.
Remember, we have free football betting tips all year round.
