Real Madrid vs Benfica Prediction
The Champions League play-offs resume on Wednesday, 25 February 2026 at 11:00 PM GMT +3 with a compelling fixture at the Santiago Bernabéu as Real Madrid host SL Benfica. This encounter carries significant weight in the second leg of the play-offs, with both clubs eager to secure progression to the next phase of the competition. Real Madrid arrive with a stronger domestic points return and superior goal-scoring numbers, while SL Benfica will attempt to exploit counter-attacking opportunities and tactical discipline under José Mourinho. The two clubs met recently with Real Madrid claiming a 1:0 away victory, and the margin between them remains narrow in terms of recent head-to-head outcomes.
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Main Betting prediction — Real Madrid win (Tip 1)
Betting prediction: Real Madrid to win (Tip 1). Real Madrid are the favourites for this tie. They possess a superior points haul (15 points) and a more potent scoring record (21 goals for, 12 against) compared to Benfica’s 10 goals scored and 12 conceded. The home record of Real Madrid, featuring three wins and one defeat across their most recent home fixtures, together with the occasion of playing at the Bernabéu, strengthens their case. Furthermore, Real Madrid’s recent form—four wins and one defeat in their last five matches across all competitions—indicates a team capable of producing decisive performances in key fixtures. Benfica, although resilient, have a less consistent away record (one win and three defeats). Considering team form, squad depth and the managerial approach of Arbeloa at Real Madrid, the most probable outcome is a home victory. Best odds on 1X2 market (where provided): Tip 1 at 1win with odd 1.46.
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2nd Betting prediction — Both teams score? Yes
Betting tip: Both teams will score — Yes. Despite Real Madrid’s home advantage and their generally strong defensive record relative to Benfica, SL Benfica have demonstrated an ability to score in this season’s fixtures and will pose attacking threats, particularly on transitions and set-pieces under the guidance of José Mourinho. Real Madrid conceded two goals in their most recent outing, indicating occasional vulnerabilities which Benfica can exploit. Both teams scoring is therefore a plausible outcome, particularly given Benfica’s willingness to press forward in away fixtures and Real Madrid’s propensity to create scoring opportunities at home. This market benefits from the expectation of an open match, especially in the latter stages when both sides will likely seek to influence the aggregate result. Best odds on both teams to score: YES at 1win with odd 1.59.
3rd Betting prediction — Over 2.5 Goals
Betting tip: Over 2.5 goals. Prediction: The fixture is expected to produce multiple goals. Real Madrid’s attack has been productive this campaign, while Benfica have also contributed goals and have the tactical acumen to find the net at the Bernabéu. Given the recent meeting ended 1:0 and the general scoring trends for both clubs, a contest yielding three or more goals is a reasonable expectation—especially if either side chases an aggregate deficit or attempts to secure a comfortable margin. An Over 2.5 selection aligns with the view that both teams will commit players forward at key phases, making the match more open and conducive to goal-scoring. Best odds for Over 2.5 goals; 1.47 on 1Win.
4th Betting prediction — Correct score 2:1
Betting tip: Correct score prediction — 2:1 to Real Madrid. A 2:1 home win is suggested as the most plausible exact-scoreline. This reflects the expectation of a competitive match in which Real Madrid’s superior attacking quality yields multiple goals, while Benfica’s tactical organization and attacking threat should be sufficient to register at least once. The 2:1 outcome balances probability with value: Real Madrid prevail, but Benfica avoid a shutout. Best odds for exact score 2-1: 7.50 on Paripesa.
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Statistics for Real Madrid vs SL Benfica
Real Madrid team news!
Manager: Arbeloa. Real Madrid enter this fixture with 15 points and a ninth-place standing in their domestic context as reported here; their seasonal record shows five wins and three defeats from the league fixtures referenced, and an overall goals tally of 21 scored and 12 conceded. At home, they have recorded three wins and one defeat, underpinning their credibility on home turf. Their most recent match produced a 1:2 away loss to CA Osasuna, a result that may have exposed tactical or defensive frailties but could also galvanize a response in a high-stakes European tie. Arbeloa’s tactical decisions, squad rotation and ability to manage the squad for European competition will be decisive—particularly in how he balances offensive impetus with defensive solidity.
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SL Benfica team news!
Manager: José Mourinho. Benfica hold 9 points and are listed with a 24th position context in the supplied dataset; their record shows three wins and five defeats with 10 goals scored and 12 conceded. Away from home, Benfica have achieved one win and suffered three defeats recently, which casts some doubt on their ability to secure a positive result at the Bernabéu. Their last match was a 3:0 home victory against AVS, suggesting confidence and attacking rhythm. Mourinho’s pragmatic approach and experience in knockout European ties make Benfica a tactically disciplined and dangerous opponent despite statistical disadvantages.
H2H statistics
The recent head-to-head record between these sides is tightly contested. In the last two meetings across all competitions, each side has recorded one victory, with no draws in that sample. The most recent direct meeting resulted in a 1:0 away win for Real Madrid, demonstrating the marginal differences that can separate the teams on the day. Historical balance suggests that while Real Madrid may be slight favourites, Benfica are capable of delivering a result.
Last results Real Madrid
In their last five matches across all competitions, Real Madrid have registered four wins and one defeat. Their current form is therefore robust overall, reflecting momentum and the capacity to win consecutive matches, although the recent away defeat indicates that they are not invulnerable.
Last results SL Benfica
SL Benfica’s recent form across five matches comprises three wins, one draw and one defeat. This sequence reflects relative consistency and competitive spirit; Benfica arrive with positive elements to their performance profile that can make them a threat in European competition.
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Conclusion
In conclusion, Real Madrid are the favourites for this Champions League play-off encounter at the Bernabéu. Their superior goal-scoring record, stronger recent form and home advantage under Arbeloa support the view that they are most likely to win. Nevertheless, Benfica under José Mourinho remain a tactically astute and goal-capable opponent, which supports secondary predictions that both teams will score and that the match could exceed 2.5 goals. The combined recommendation is therefore a home win for Real Madrid (Tip 1), supplemented by Both Teams to Score — Yes, Over 2.5 goals, and a refined correct-score forecast of 2:1 in favour of Real Madrid. Bettors should consider the quoted odds where available and apply prudent stake management in accordance with their own risk tolerance.
