Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid prediction
The Primera División returns to San Mamés on Wednesday, 03.12.2025 at 21:00 GMT+3 for a fixture that promises intensity and tactical nuance: Athletic Bilbao host Real Madrid in Matchday 19. This contest pits Ernesto Valverde’s Basque side, currently 8th in the table with 20 points, against Xabi Alonso’s rejuvenated Real Madrid, third with 32 points. Athletic Bilbao arrive with a home record of four wins, one draw and two defeats and an overall goals record of 14 scored and 17 conceded. Real Madrid have registered ten wins, two draws and a single defeat so far, with an away record of four wins, two draws and one defeat and a goals tally of 28:12. The most recent direct meeting ended in a 1:0 victory for Real Madrid. This section sets out our recommended betting selections for the match, providing the principal market pick followed by supplementary angles to consider. Each selection is accompanied by a concise rationale and the best available odds for the respective market.
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Main Tip: Both teams score? Yes
Both sides have shown capacity to find the net in recent matches and are prone to conceding: Athletic have scored in a significant portion of their fixtures but have also conceded regularly, while Real Madrid have a potent forward line yet have allowed goals across competitions. Athletic’s possession-based, intense pressing approach under Valverde frequently produces transitional chances for opponents, and Real Madrid’s counter-creative threat increases the likelihood of goals at both ends. For those seeking an alternative market to the match-winner, the betting prediction of “Both teams score — Yes” is persuasive given form and stylistic tendencies. The best odds for this market: 1xBet offering 1.72 for Yes.
Betting Tip 2: Real Madrid Win – Tip 2
Real Madrid represent the stronger side on paper and in current league form. They occupy a top-three position, have the superior points total (32), and boast a markedly better goal difference than Athletic Bilbao. Xabi Alonso’s team travel with fewer domestic setbacks, one defeat versus Bilbao’s six, and possess a prolific attack that has yielded 28 goals in the campaign to date. Athletic’s home form is respectable, yet their defensive record and lower scoring rate (14 goals) make them vulnerable to sustained pressure from elite opposition. Considering these comparative strengths and Real Madrid’s consistent away results, the second betting prediction is for an away victory at 1.86 on 1xBet.
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Betting Tip 3: Over 2.5 goals
An Over 2.5 goals selection is attractive in the context of two teams that combine attacking intent with defensive susceptibilities. Real Madrid’s matches have averaged higher goal totals this season, and Athletic’s encounters often generate openings at pace. While San Mamés can be a constraining environment, the likelihood of at least three total goals is enhanced by both teams’ recent output and the tactical match-up — Madrid’s ability to stretch play and Athletic’s commitment to forward transitions. Markets for Over 2.5 are widely available; the recommended betting prediction is Over 2.5 goals.
Statistics for Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid
Real Madrid fought from one goal down to force a 1-1 draw against Girona in their last outing. and that result leaves them second in the standings, one point behind arch rivals, Barcelona. Real have one of the best attacks in the league, but they were found wanting in their last league outing.
Athletico Bilbao have been inconsistent lately, winning two, drawing one, with the remaining two being losses.
Athletic Bilbao team news!
Athletic Bilbao occupy 8th place with 20 points after 19 rounds, recording six wins, two draws and six defeats with a goals for/against tally of 14:17. At home they have won four, drawn one and lost two fixtures. Coach Ernesto Valverde typically sets up his side with emphasis on compactness, pressing in transitions and exploiting wide areas. Bilbao’s home atmosphere at San Mamés often amplifies their collective intensity; however, their scoring rate remains modest, and defensive lapses have cost points this season. Injuries, rotation and any late changes to the squad will influence Valverde’s options, but the manager’s tactical blueprint is likely to prioritise balance and set-piece efficiency.
Real Madrid team news!
Real Madrid are third with 32 points, the product of ten wins, two draws and one defeat, and a favourable goals record of 28:12. Their away record stands at an impressive four wins, two draws and one loss. Under Xabi Alonso, the side has demonstrated robust structure, quick vertical transitions and a clinical edge in the final third. Alonso’s approach combines strategic discipline with clear attacking patterns; Madrid carry the greater firepower and consistency between the sticks. Team selection will reflect Alonso’s tactical priorities and his capacity to rotate while maintaining quality, particularly given the congested calendar.
H2H statistics
The head-to-head record across the last five meetings between Athletic Bilbao and Real Madrid shows Real Madrid with the edge: three wins for Real Madrid, one win for Athletic Bilbao and one draw. The most recent direct encounter produced a 1:0 victory for Real Madrid. Historically, fixtures between these clubs can be tight and tactical, yet Real Madrid have tended to secure more favourable outcomes in recent seasons.
Last results Athletic Bilbao
In their last five matches across all competitions Athletic Bilbao have recorded two wins, one draw and two defeats: a form sequence that indicates intermittent stability but also vulnerability. Their most recent match produced a positive away result, which will lift confidence ahead of the San Mamés clash. Overall form suggests a team capable of competing strongly on home soil but not immune to counter-attacking threats or defensive inconsistency.
Last results Real Madrid
Real Madrid’s most recent five-match sequence reads as one win, three draws and one defeat. This run displays a degree of solidity yet also signs of matches being closely contested. The frequency of draws suggests resilience but also occasions where Madrid were held by opponents; nevertheless, their offensive potency and superior points tally underline their status among the division’s leading sides.
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Conclusion
Real Madrid enter San Mamés as clear favourites by virtue of superior league position, a stronger goal difference and a more favourable overall record. Xabi Alonso’s side possess the attacking quality and tactical consistency to impose themselves, particularly against a Bilbao team that, while industrious and well coached by Ernesto Valverde, has a lower scoring rate and a less robust defensive portfolio. Our principal recommendation is an away win for Real Madrid (Tip 2 at 1xBet: 1.86), supported by the expectation that both teams will find the net (Yes at 1xBet: 1.72) and that the match will produce multiple goals (Over 2.5). For those preferring a conservative forecast with potential value, the 1:1 correct score remains a plausible outcome in a tightly contested encounter. Bettors should weigh these predictions against team news, final line-ups and in-play developments before committing stakes.
