Girona vs Atletico Madrid prediction
The Primera División fixture between Girona FC and Atlético Madrid will be contested on Sunday, 21 December 2025 at 4:00 PM GMT +3, on matchday 17, at the Municipal de Montilivi. Girona arrive at this encounter occupying 18th place with 15 points (3 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats) and a goal difference of 15:30, while Atlético Madrid sit fourth with 34 points (10 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats) and a goal difference of 30:16. At home Girona have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Atlético have an away record of 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats. The most recent direct meeting ended in a 4:0 victory for Atlético Madrid. With contrasting league positions and statistical profiles, this match shapes as a test of Atlético’s defensive consistency against Girona’s need for points at Montilivi.
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Main Betting tip — Under 2.5 Goals
Betting tip: Under 2.5 goals. The combination of Girona’s low scoring rate and Atlético’s tendency to manage matches tightly under Diego Simeone makes the under 2.5 goals market attractive. Atlético frequently set their matches up to avoid high-scoring affairs, and Girona’s offensive limitations imply that the game could be decided by a single goal or remain low on total chances. Given the expectation of a narrow Atlético victory and a disciplined defensive approach, Under 2.5 goals is recommended as the third betting selection. Best odds for this market were 2.06 on Paripesa.
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Betting prediction — Atletico Madrid Win
Betting prediction: Away win — Atlético Madrid (Tip 2). Atlético Madrid are the clear favourites on form and pedigree. They boast 34 points and have scored 30 goals this season compared with Girona’s 15, and their head-to-head dominance (four wins in the last five meetings) underlines a psychological and tactical edge. Atlético also arrive with the better recent run, winning three of their last five matches across competitions, whereas Girona have managed only one win in their last five. Girona’s defensive fragility — 30 goals conceded in the league — makes them vulnerable to Atlético’s attacking players under Diego Simeone’s organisation. Considering these factors, an away victory for Atlético represents the most likely outcome. Best available odd on the 1X2 market at 1Win: Tip 2 at 1.68.
Betting tip — Both teams score? No
Betting tip: Both teams will not score (No). Girona have struggled offensively this season, scoring only 15 goals in their league campaign, whereas Atlético have shown resilience at the back, conceding 16 goals across their fixtures. The statistical profile favours a match in which Atlético control proceedings and limit Girona’s scoring opportunities. The recent historical context — including a decisive 4:0 win for Atlético in the last meeting — suggests that Girona may be prevented from scoring. Therefore, a “No” on both teams to score is a coherent complement to the main selection. Best available odd at Paripesa for Both Teams to Score: Tip NO at 2.03.
Betting tip — Correct score prediction
Betting tip: 0:1 away win for Atlético Madrid. Combining the forecasts above, the most realistic correct-score projection is a slim 0:1 victory for Atlético. This aligns with the expectation that Atlético will win while keeping Girona off the scoresheet and that the total goals will remain under 2.5. A 0:1 outcome respects Girona’s home resistance and Atlético’s defensive organisation, and it corresponds with the match narrative of a single decisive moment delivered by the visitors. Best odds for the 0:1 correct-score prediction is 7.50.
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Statistics for Girona FC vs Atlético Madrid
Girona FC team news!
Girona, managed by Míchel, find themselves under pressure near the relegation zone and have only three league victories so far. Their goalscoring record for the campaign is modest — only 15 goals scored — while their defensive record is poor, having conceded 30. At Montilivi they have been inconsistent: two home wins, three draws and three defeats indicate that while they can secure results on their own turf, they have failed to turn home advantage into consistent points. Coach Míchel will be looking for improved attacking impetus and greater defensive organisation if Girona are to threaten the favourites in this fixture.
Atlético Madrid team news!
Atlético Madrid, coached by Diego Simeone, have been efficient both in attack and defence relative to Girona: 30 goals scored indicates a productive forward line, while 16 conceded demonstrates defensive solidity. Their away record of 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats suggests occasional vulnerability on the road, but overall their squad depth and tactical discipline make them one of La Liga’s stronger sides. Simeone’s emphasis on structure and transitional moments typically yields narrow, controlled victories — a pattern consistent with the selected betting tips.
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H2H statistics
In head-to-head terms across the last five meetings in all competitions, Atlético Madrid have dominated with 4 wins to Girona’s single victory; there have been no draws in that sequence. The most recent direct meeting between the two clubs produced a 4:0 win for Atlético, further emphasising the visitors’ historical upper hand. This H2H record reinforces the assessment that Atlético arrive with both confidence and tactical clarity when facing Girona.
Last results Girona FC
In their last five matches across competitions Girona have recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats. The current form is therefore mixed but leans toward inconsistency; their most recent match was a 2:1 away win against Real Sociedad, which provides some short-term momentum but does not erase the broader trend of defensive frailty and limited goal production across the season.
Last results Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid’s last five matches across competitions have delivered 3 wins and 2 defeats, with no draws in that sequence. The most recent fixture for Atlético was a 3:2 away win versus Atlético Baleares, indicating that the team can win while conceding goals, but overall their recent form is stronger than Girona’s and more predictive of success in this encounter.
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Conclusion
On balance, Atlético Madrid enter this fixture as clear favourites. Their superior league position, stronger goalscoring record, historic dominance in head-to-head meetings and a more convincing recent form underpin the expectation of an away victory. Girona’s home advantage and a recent morale-boosting win offer some counterarguments, but their season-long defensive issues and limited attacking output make it unlikely they will overturn the visitors. Consequently, the recommended betting scenario is an Under 2.5 goals selection, an Atlético Madrid away win (Tip 2), accompanied by both teams not scoring (No), and an exact-score forecast of 0:1 in favour of Atlético. These selections reflect a conservative, defence-oriented projection that matches the statistical profile and tactical tendencies of both teams.
