Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid prediction
The Primera División returns to Campo de Fútbol de Vallecas on Sunday, 09.11.2025 at 6:15 PM GMT +3, when Rayo Vallecano host league leaders Real Madrid in Matchday 12. The fixture pairs a side sitting tenth in the table with 14 points against a dominant Real Madrid outfit on 30 points, unbeaten in draws and having lost only once so far. This preview offers a measured assessment of the teams’ current condition, tactical considerations and recommended betting selections for the encounter.
Rayo Vallecano approach the game under coach Iñigo Pérez with a mixed record at home and an overall season of modest scoring (12 goals for, 14 conceded). Real Madrid, coached by Xabi Alonso, present superior attacking numbers (26 goals scored) and an impressive away record this term. The most recent direct meeting finished 2:1 in favour of Real Madrid; across the last five head-to-head matches in all competitions Rayo have not secured a win (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats).
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Our betting predictions for Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid
Below are our considered betting predictions for the match. The selections are based on current form, season statistics and the respective tactical profiles of the teams.
Correct score — 1:2 Away win for Real Madrid
For a more precise forecast, we project a 1:2 final score in favour of Real Madrid. Real Madrid are the clear favourites to prevail in Vallecas. Their defensive solidity, offensive productivity and sustained consistency under Xabi Alonso make them the most likely side to take three points. Rayo Vallecano have shown spirit in recent weeks but possess a modest goal return. This scoreline reflects a controlled away victory in which Rayo manage to score at least once — consistent with the Both Teams To Score view — while Real secure two goals through superior individual quality and tactical cohesion. The odds for the 1-2 correct score market are 7.50 on Paripesa.
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Both teams score? Yes
Despite the prediction of a Real Madrid victory, there is a realistic prospect that Rayo Vallecano will find the net. Rayo have demonstrated the ability to score in several matches this campaign and Real Madrid’s attacking orientation under Xabi Alonso often leaves spaces that domestic opponents exploit. The recent form lines also point toward competitive games in which both teams contribute goals: Rayo’s last five matches include three wins and one draw, showing offensive capability, while Real have been prolific with 26 goals across the season. Accordingly, the “Both teams to score — Yes” market represents an attractive complementary selection. The best quoted odd for Both Teams To Score (Yes) at 1Win is 1.71.
Over/Under — Over 2.5 goals
The combination of Real Madrid’s attacking potency and Rayo Vallecano’s recent capacity to score suggests a higher likelihood of multiple goals. Real’s matches frequently produce several goals, and Rayo’s tendency to be open in transition increases the chance of conceding. Therefore, Over 2.5 goals is our recommended market for punters seeking a higher-yield outcome than the straightforward 1×2. The best odds for Over 2.5 Goals are 1.63 at Paripesa.
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Statistics for Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano team news!
Coach Iñigo Pérez presides over a Rayo Vallecano side that occupies tenth position with 14 points, accrued via 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, and a goal tally of 12 scored versus 14 conceded. At home, Rayo’s record reads 1 win, 2 draws and 1 defeat — an indicator of competitive but not overwhelming home form. The team’s recent run across five matches comprises 3 victories, 1 draw and 1 defeat, signalling a decent sequence of results despite defensive questions. Pérez will be looking to leverage Vallecas’ atmosphere and his side’s recent confidence to trouble Real’s defence.
Real Madrid team news!
Under the stewardship of Xabi Alonso, Real Madrid top the Primera División after 11 matches with 30 points, registering 10 wins and a single defeat while remaining unbeaten in draws. Their goal record of 26:10 demonstrates both scoring efficiency and acceptable defensive organisation. On the road, Real have accumulated 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, underlining their capacity to perform away from home. The squad arrives with strong momentum, having won four of their last five matches in all competitions and registering only one defeat in that period.
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H2H statistics
The historical balance between Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid in the last five encounters favours Madrid: Rayo hold 0 wins, there have been 3 draws and 2 wins for Real Madrid. The most recent direct meeting concluded with a 2:1 victory for Real Madrid. This head-to-head record indicates that while Rayo can be resilient and force draws, Madrid have the upper hand overall and have typically managed to secure favourable outcomes in recent duels.
Last results Rayo Vallecano
In their last five matches across all competitions Rayo Vallecano have compiled 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. That sequence demonstrates a good run of form relative to their overall season, suggesting that the team has recovered some confidence and attacking rhythm. However, the solitary defeat in that run was a heavy 0:4 loss away to Villarreal, which raises questions about defensive vulnerability against high-quality opponents.
Last results Real Madrid
Real Madrid’s recent five-match sequence shows 4 wins and 1 defeat, reflecting strong and sustained performances. The only defeat in that span came in an away fixture against Liverpool FC (0:1), providing context for the solitary blemish. Otherwise, Real have shown consistency and goal-scoring reliability, supporting their position at the summit of the table.
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Conclusion
On balance, Real Madrid enter this fixture as clear favourites. Their superior points tally, prolific attack and robust away record under Xabi Alonso give them a decisive edge over a Rayo Vallecano side that, while capable and in decent recent form, possesses a less convincing defensive record and fewer scoring resources. Our principal recommendation is an away win for Real Madrid with a correct score 1-2, supplemented by the expectation that both teams will score and that the match will produce more than 2.5 goals. For a specific result forecast, a 1:2 victory for Real Madrid encapsulates the most probable scenario: a controlled Madrid triumph with Rayo registering at least one goal. As always, bettors should stake responsibly and consult live odds before placing wagers.
