Real Madrid vs Alaves prediction
The La Liga fixture between Real Madrid and Deportivo Alavés is scheduled for Tuesday, 21 April 2026 at 10:30 PM (GMT+3). The meeting at the Santiago Bernabéu, on Matchday 33 of the Spanish top flight, pits second-placed Real Madrid (70 points) against 17th-placed Deportivo Alavés (33 points). Real Madrid arrive with an imposing domestic record — 22 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats with a goals tally of 65 for and 29 against — and a strong home record of 13 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. Alavés have managed 8 wins, 9 draws and 14 defeats overall, scoring 35 and conceding 46, and their away record stands at 3 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats. The recent head-to-head history heavily favours Real Madrid, who have won each of the last five meetings, including the most recent direct encounter, which finished 2:1 in Madrid’s favour.
Main Betting tip: HC -1 Real Madrid
The principal betting prediction for this match is a handicap -1 home victory for Real Madrid. Despite a mixed run of form in recent fixtures, Real Madrid remain substantially superior on paper, particularly at the Bernabéu, where they have been robust throughout the season. Alavés’ away record indicates vulnerability on the road, with only three wins from their ten away fixtures; by contrast Real Madrid have been prolific in front of their supporters and possess a far superior goal difference (65:29). Tactical continuity under coach Álvaro Arbeloa, combined with the quality and depth of the Real squad, makes them clear favourites to secure three points.
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Betting tip 2: Over 3.5 goals
The second prediction is that the match will produce more than 3.5 goals. Recent fixtures involving both clubs have demonstrated the possibility of high-scoring outcomes; Real Madrid have been involved in matches with multiple goals at both ends, and Alavés’ recent away games have also featured several goals. The combination of Madrid’s attacking emphasis and Alavés’ willingness to commit players forward in search of points suggests that a match with at least four goals is credible.
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Betting Tip 3: Correct score 3-1
The final prediction is a correct score of 3:1 in favour of Real Madrid. This forecast reflects an expectation that Madrid will both control the match and keep defensive solidity sufficient to prevent Alavés from scoring, should Madrid adopt a balanced approach after securing the initiative. A 3:1 scoreline represents a realistic, conservative projection where Madrid converts their superiority into two goals and the Alavés attack is contained. This prediction complements the primary tip (HC -1 home win) while providing a conservative alternative to the over/under selection.
Statistics for Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés
Real Madrid team news!
Real Madrid occupy second place in La Liga with 70 points, accrued from 22 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats, and a goals tally of 65 scored against 29 conceded. Their home record of 13 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats underlines their strength at the Bernabéu. Recent form across all competitions has been inconsistent: in the last five matches Real Madrid recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, a sequence that suggests vulnerability in the short term but not a wholesale loss of quality. Coach Álvaro Arbeloa’s side will be mindful of restoring consistency domestically, particularly given their ambitions in the league table. Tactical adjustments and rotation may be considered following a high-scoring defeat in continental competition.
Deportivo Alavés team news!
Deportivo Alavés sit 17th in the table with 33 points, achieved through 8 wins, 9 draws and 14 defeats, and a goal difference of 35:46. Their away form — 3 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats — has been a limiting factor in their season. Across their last five fixtures in all competitions, Alavés have recorded 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat, suggesting a degree of resilience though not necessarily the firepower to dominate top teams. Under coach Quique Sánchez Flores, the side have shown organisational discipline and counter-attacking intent; however, the defensive record remains a concern when facing elite attacking units. Alavés will likely adopt a cautious approach but also seek to exploit transition opportunities.
H2H statistics
The head-to-head record heavily favours Real Madrid. Over the last five meetings across all competitions, Real Madrid have won all five encounters, while Deportivo Alavés have yet to secure a draw or victory in those fixtures. The last direct meeting ended in a 2:1 away win for Real Madrid, underscoring Madrid’s consistent competitive edge in this matchup.
Last results Real Madrid
In their most recent five matches across all competitions Real Madrid have managed 1 win, 1 draw and suffered 3 defeats. This run indicates a period of mixed form and occasional defensive frailties, particularly in high-profile matches. The current form suggests that while Madrid remain favourites, they cannot be regarded as invulnerable.
Last results Deportivo Alavés
Deportivo Alavés have collected 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last five matches across all competitions. This sequence shows relative compactness and the ability to earn points, but also highlights limitations in converting draws into wins, especially on the road and against stronger opposition.
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Conclusion
Real Madrid enter this fixture as clear favourites based on season-long performance, home form and historical dominance in head-to-head meetings. Deportivo Alavés possess resilience and can score, but their away difficulties and defensive record make them the underdogs. The recommended primary outcome is a Handicap -1 home victory for Real Madrid, with supplementary selections favouring an open match in which multiple goals are likely. For bettors seeking a precise outcome, a conservative correct-score projection of 3:1 to Real Madrid balances the expectation of a Madrid win.
