Villarreal vs Real Madrid prediction
The Primera División encounter between Villarreal CF and Real Madrid will take place on Saturday, 24.01.2026 at 23:00 at the Estadio de la Cerámica, as part of Matchday 21. This fixture pits third-placed Villarreal (41 points) against second-placed Real Madrid (48 points) in what is likely to be a high-stakes contest with implications for the title race. Villarreal arrive with a strong home record (8 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat) and a season tally of 13 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, producing 37 goals while conceding 19. Real Madrid have been the more consistent side overall, with 15 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats (43:17 goals) and an impressive away record of 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat. The last direct meeting between the two sides finished 3:1 in favour of Real Madrid, and the head-to-head across the last five meetings reads 0 Villarreal wins, 1 draw and 4 wins for Real Madrid. Both clubs are coached by experienced managers: Marcelino leads Villarreal and Arbeloa is at the helm for Real Madrid.
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Main Tip: Over 3.5 Goals
For the main tip recommendation is Over 3.5 goals. This is a pragmatic selection rather than a speculative one: Taking their respective goal-scoring exploits into account, we could be in for a goal fest on Saturday. Considering the attacking records of both teams accompanied by their high profiles, given that they are in the top three, we expect no fewer than than four total goals in this encounter. The odds for this selection is 2.16.
Betting Tip 2: Both teams score? Yes
Villarreal have been productive in front of goal at home this season and Real Madrid possess considerable attacking firepower, making “Both teams score? Yes” a compelling secondary betting tip. Marcelino’s side averages a healthy goal return per match and often approach fixtures from a forward-looking, proactive standpoint at Estadio de la Cerámica. Real Madrid, meanwhile, have demonstrated their ability to break down opponents even when defensive stability is required. The statistical balance suggests that while Real Madrid are marginal favourites to win, Villarreal will likely create scoring opportunities and convert at least once. The best quoted odds for Both teams to score is 1.44 on Paripesa.
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Betting Tip 3: Real Madrid Win -Tip 2
The third and final betting prediction for this fixture is an away win for Real Madrid. Several factors underpin this selection: Real Madrid occupy second place in the table with seven more points than Villarreal, possess superior goal difference and have produced a robust away record (six victories in ten away league fixtures). Their recent confidence has been further boosted by an emphatic 6:1 home victory over AS Monaco in their latest match, indicating attacking form and momentum. Conversely, Villarreal have shown vulnerability in recent fixtures, with three defeats in their last five matches across competitions, including a 1:2 home loss to Ajax. Although Villarreal are strong at Estadio de la Cerámica, the combination of Real Madrid’s form, depth and tactical balance under Arbeloa favours an away victory.
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Statistics for Villarreal CF vs Real Madrid
Villarreal CF team news!
Villarreal, coached by Marcelino, stand third in the Primera División with 41 points after 21 matchdays. Their home form is one of the major strengths of the campaign: eight wins, one draw and one defeat at Estadio de la Cerámica. Marcelino’s approach has produced a side that is organised defensively (19 goals conceded domestically) while still capable of offensive output (37 goals scored). Recent competitive form is mixed; Villarreal have registered two wins and three defeats in their last five fixtures across all competitions, indicating some inconsistency that may be exposed against elite opposition.
Real Madrid team news!
Real Madrid, led by coach Arbeloa, currently occupy second place with 48 points and have compiled a strong overall record of 15 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats. Their away record of six wins, three draws and one defeat underlines the team’s resilience on the road. Real Madrid’s attacking record is excellent (43 goals scored), and they have recently demonstrated an ability to score prolifically, as evidenced by the 6:1 win over AS Monaco. Arbeloa’s tactical setup appears geared to maintain both attacking thrust and structural discipline, which will be important in a challenging environment at Villarreal.
H2H statistics
In the last five meetings between these clubs across all competitions, Real Madrid have been dominant with four wins and one draw; Villarreal have not recorded a victory in that sequence. The most recent direct encounter ended 3:1 in favour of Real Madrid. Historical head-to-head data therefore favours Real Madrid psychologically and statistically, though past results do not guarantee future outcomes, particularly given Villarreal’s strong home record.
Last results Villarreal CF
Over their last five matches in all competitions Villarreal have recorded 2 wins and 3 defeats, with no draws. The current short-term form indicates some vulnerability, particularly in defence, and suggests that Marcelino will need to restore consistency if his side are to challenge effectively against the league’s elite.
Last results Real Madrid
Real Madrid’s recent sequence comprises 3 wins and 2 defeats over their last five outings across competitions, with no draws recorded. This form shows a team capable of producing high-scoring performances as well as occasional lapses; overall, the trend supports confidence in their competitive level heading into this fixture.
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Conclusion
On balance, Real Madrid are the favourites to obtain a positive result in this fixture. Their higher league position, superior goal statistics and recent attacking form make them the logical pick for victory. Villarreal’s strong home record and ability to score mean they cannot be dismissed and are likely to trouble Real Madrid’s defence. With that in mind, our principal betting tip is over 3.5 goals, supported by both teams to score and Real Madrid win.
