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Chelsea - Aston Villa
Premier League
Sun, 24.09.2023 – 4:00 PM GMT+3
our main tip:
Under 3.5 Goals

Chelsea vs Aston Villa prediction

Chelsea’s lacklustre start to the season continued last time out as they fired blanks to draw 0-0 against Bournemouth. That draw, came after a 1-0 loss at home to Forest, highlighting the myriads of problems Pochetinno must solve if the Blues intend to do anything reasonable this season. This weekend, they host Aston Villa. Here, they have to contend with Emery’s tactical prowess and the inconsistencies of Nicolas Jackson, Raheem Sterling and co. Also, they will be looking to avoid back to back home defeats, having only won their first home game since March when they beat Luton 3-0 few weeks back.That win was Chelsea’s 5th across all competitions in 2023, meaning in this tie against Villa, the Blues will be hunting for their 6th win all year.

Heading into this tie, Aston Villa will be buoyed by how much they have improved under Emery, earning a European slot last season and winning 3 of their last 5 games so far this season. In fact, Villa came from behind to beat Crystal Palace 3-1 last time out, to secure a 9th consecutive home league win. While they seem to be a lot better on home turf, Aston Villa will fancy their chances at the Bridge given how woeful Chelsea have been. In fact, looking at how well they dealt with opponents in their first 3 wins of the season, Villa have shown they are capable of punishing a poor side like Chelsea. In addition, Villa will be motivated by the fact that the last two visits to Stamford Bridge ended 1-0 and 2-0 in their favor.

For our first Chelsea Vs Aston Villa prediction, we are looking back at 3 of the last 4 clashes between both sides, in which less than 4 goals were score. In fact, each of the last 3 meetings between them had very few goals. Therefore, we are projecting the same thing to play out here with under 3.5 goals scored.

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Main tip: Under 3.5 Goals

Our Chelsea vs Aston Villa predictions

According to the statistics and the odds of the bookmakers, we suggest the following tips:

Prediction 1: Under 3.5 Goals

Chelsea are enduring their worst run of form in history, picking up just 2 wins in all competitions since March. Despite the multi million pound investment since the Boehly takeover, the Blues have not quite found their rhythm, making many analysts question what the strategy is for the Blues and what realistic ambition do they have this season. In addition, these woes have been further compounded by the team’s poor showing in the final third. As a matter of fact, they scored just 38 goals last season and have only managed 5 goals so far this term, their worst tally after 5 games since 1995/96 when they finished 11th on the log. For this reason, using Betwinner’s competitive odds, we are expecting less than 4 goals to be scored in this game.

Odds for this bet

Betwinner offers competitive odds for the bet “Under 3.5 Goals”

The odd of 1.69 means that the bookmakers are calculating with a likelihood of approx. 59% chance that there will be less than 4 goals in this match.

Odds comparison for Under 3.5 Goals

Betwinner – odds 1.69
Melbet – odds 1.69

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Prediction 2: Most Scoring Half 2nd

Regardless of their current goal scoring form, Chelsea are a difficult side to break down especially when they are playing at home. In fact, in their last home defeat, the Blues conceded a lone goal in the second half to lose 1-0 to Nottingham Forest. Also, in Aston Villa’s last game, they had to come from a goal down to rally themselves to a 3-1 victory against Crystal Palace. In that tie, most of the goals came in the second half, helping Villa to maintain their good run at home this season. Therefore, for our second Chelsea Vs Aston Villa prediction, we expect the second half to produce more goals than the first.

Odds for this bet

Melbet offers competitive odds for “Most Scoring Half 2nd”

The odd of 2.00 means that the bookmakers are calculating with a likelihood of approx. 50% chance that This match will produce more second half goals.

Odds comparisons for Most Scoring Half 2nd

Melbet – odds 2.00
Mozzart – odds 2.00

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Prediction 3: Aston Villa To Win Either Half

Chelsea’s current form and the lack of synergy among their new signings make them an easy prey for Aston Villa. In fact, as stated earlier, Villa last 2 visits have yielded results in favor of the West-Midlands side. Going by this run and how poor the blues have been even in their last home defeat, one cannot but anticipate a good outing for the away side here. Hence, we are backing Unai Emery’s men to win either half of this match.

Statistics for Chelsea vs Aston Villa Prediction

H2H statistics

We look at the last 49 meetings between these two teams:

  • Chelsea got 26 wins, Aston Villa won 11, while 12 matches were drawn
  • These matches scored an average of 2.73 goals per match
  • The last time they met, it ended 2-0 to Aston Villa

Latest results Chelsea

  • 1 win, 2 losses and 2 draws their last 5 matches
  • 5 goals in their last 5 matches. Average 1.00 goals per match
  • They drew Bournemouth 0-0 in their last match

Latest results Aston Villa

  • 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
  • 14 goals scored in their last 5 matches. Average 2.80 goals per match
  • In their last match, they beat Crystal Palace 3-1
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Possible squad Chelsea & Aston Villa

Line upChelseaAston Villa
GoalkeeperSanchezMartínez
DefenseDisasi, Silva, ColwillKonsa, Carlos, Torres
MidfieldGusto, Gallagher, Caicedo, Chilwell, EnzoCash, Kamara, Luiz, Digne, McGinn
ForwardSterling, JacksonDiaby, Watkins
InjuredChukwuemeka (Knee surgery), James (Hamstring), Chalobah (Hamstring), Nkunku (Knee injury), Fofana (ACL injury), Badiashile (Groin injury), Bettinelli (Undisclosed), Broja (Knee injury)Coutinho (Hamstring), Mings (Knee injury), Iroegbunam (Undisclosed), Dendoncker (Undisclosed), Buendia (ACL injury), Ramsey (Thigh injury)
CoachMauricio PochettinoUnai Emery

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