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Chelsea - Newcastle
Premier League
Mon, 11.03.2024 – 11:00 PM GMT+3
our main tip:
1st Half - Draw

Chelsea vs Newcastle prediction

Chelsea have struggled to stay above the water in the Premier League this season. They are wallowing in mid-table and with the season almost getting to the homestretch they are running out of games to improve their lots. A late Axel Disasi equalizer rescued a point away at Brentford last time out. That result means they remain in the bottom half of the table (11th) and for all the money they pumped into putting up this squad, their performances and current position on the log certainly leave a bitter taste in the mouths of their expectant fans

An almost similar situation obtains at Newcastle. The takeover by the Qatari royals made them the richest club in England. They went on a recruitment drive for new players but that didn’t quite pan out like they had anticipated. They did look good to start the season though as they oscillated in the top 4. However a terrible run of form has seen them side down to 8th on the log. They did return to winning ways last time out as they picked up a 3-0 over Wolves at St James Park. Eddie Howe will be looking to build on this.

This is a critical game for both of these teams. They are both looking to breathe life into their flailing league campaigns. We expect a close start to this game with neither side ceding too much ground. As a result, we are going for a First Half Draw as our opening Chelsea vs Newcastle prediction

Check out our other EPL predictions for the top upcoming matches from the English top-flight league

Main tip: First Half Draw

Our Chelsea vs Newcastle predictions

According to the statistics and the odds of the bookmakers, we suggest the following tips:

Prediction 1: First Half – Draw

A lot is riding on this game. A win for either team will significantly improve their current positions. We therefore expect both teams to dig in early as they try to keep each other at bay.

The reverse game earlier this season had the first half ending 1-1 at St James Park before Newcatle ran riot to pick up a 4-1 win.

In fact each of their last 5 meetings ended in a draw at halftime!

We expect that trend to hold here given the stakes at play. We are therefore picking this game to end in a draw at the break with decent odds for this market offered at 1Win

Odds for this bet

1Win offers competitive odds for the bet “First Half – Draw”

The odd of 2.55 means that the bookmakers are calculating with a likelihood of approx. 39% chance that the opening half of this match will end in a stalemate

Odds comparison for First Half – Draw

1Win – odd 2.55
1xBet – odd 2.49

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Prediction 2: Double Chance – Chelsea/Draw

Despite their struggles, Chelsea have been relatively steady at home, losing just once in 13 matches across all competitions.

Newcastle on their part haven’t been great travellers. They have turned things around a little but in recent weeks, but overall they have struggled to get points on the board away from home.

We expect Chelsea to dominate proceedings here cheered on by their raucous home crowd at Stamford Bridge. Their record here pretty much speaks for itself. We feel comfortable picking Chelsea to win or draw this clash with terrific odds for this option offered at Paripesa

Odds for this bet

Paripesa offers competitive odds for “Double Chance – Chelsea/Draw”

The odd of 1.30 means that the bookmakers are calculating with a likelihood of approx. 77% chance that Chelsea will win or draw this match

Odds comparisons Double Chance – Chelsea/Draw

Paripesa – odd 1.30
Bet365 – odd 1.28

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Prediction 3: Over 3.5 Bookings

Given the stakes at play, we can expect a rather physical here with potential to have tensions boiling over. The two teams may not really be rivals in footballing terms. But on the finances front, they are certainly the Mr Moneybags of the league!

There is no love lost between them. 3 of the last 5 encounters had at least 4 bookings, including the last meeting in the EFL Cup that ended with 6 bookings.

We are backing this game to be overly physical, with cynical challenges here and there. As a result, we are going for at least 4 bookings to be dished out here as our final Chelsea vs Newcastle prediction for this match.

Statistics for Chelsea vs Newcastle Prediction

H2H statistics

Looking at the last 10 meetings between these two teams:

  • Chelsea have 5 wins, Newcastle 3 wins and 2 matches were drawn
  • These matches averaged 2.20 goals a match
  • The last meeting ended 2-1 in favor of Chelsea

Latest results Chelsea

  • 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 matches
  • 9 goals scored in these last 5 matches. Average of 1.80 goals per match
  • Drew 2-2 away at Brentford in their last match

Latest results Newcastle

  • 2 wins, 2 draws and a loss in their last 5 matches
  • 10 goals scored in these last 5 matches. Average 2.00 goals per match
  • Thrashed Wolves 3-0 at home n in their last match
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Possible squad Chelsea & Newcastle

Line upChelsea Newcastle
DefenseGusto, Disasi, Colwill, ChilwellTrippier, Schär, Botman, Burn
MidfieldCaicedo, Fernández, GallagherMiley, Guimarães, Longstaff
ForwardPalmer, Jackson, SterlingFraser, Isak, Gordon
MissingChukwuemeka (Ankle), Silva (Groin), Badiashile (Strain), Lavia (Unknown), Ugochukwu (Hamstring), Cucurella (Ankle), James (Hamstrimg)Tonali (Disciplinary), Wilson (Calf), Manquillo (Groin), Pope (Shoulder), Willock (Archilles Tendon), Murphy (Shoulder), Targett (Hamstring), Anderson (Back), Barnes (Ankle)
CoachMauricio PochettinoEddie Howe

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