Fiorentina vs AC Milan Prediction
The Serie A fixture between Fiorentina and AC Milan will take place on Sunday, 11 January 2026 at 5:00 PM GMT +3 at the Artemio Franchi in Florence. This encounter, played on Matchday 20, pits a side fighting to escape the relegation zone against a title-contending Milan outfit. Fiorentina sit 18th with 12 points from 18 matches (2 wins, 6 draws, 10 defeats), having managed 18 goals while conceding 28. Their home record is fragile: 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats. AC Milan arrive in markedly stronger form and position: second in the table with 38 points from 17 matches (11 wins, 5 draws, 1 defeat), a goal difference of 28:13 and an unbeaten away record in the league so far (5 wins, 3 draws, 0 defeats). The last direct meeting ended in a 2:1 victory for AC Milan.
This preview evaluates team form, tactical considerations and statistical indicators, and concludes with a set of formal betting predictions for the match.
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Main Betting prediction — AC Milan Win (Draw No Bet)
Given the comparative quality, recent form and squad stability, the primary betting prediction for this fixture is AC Milan Win (Draw No Bet). Milan have been consistent across competitions, registering 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last five matches, including a recent 1:0 away win at Cagliari. By contrast, Fiorentina’s recent sequence reads 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, and their season-long home performances have been inconsistent. The numerical gulf in league points (38 vs. 12) and Milan’s strong defensive record (only 13 goals conceded) support the view that they will control large portions of this game and are favored to take all three points. Best available odd for AC Milan Win (Draw No Bet) in the supplied data: Tip 2 at 1Win with odd 1.46.
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2nd Betting Tip – Both teams score? Yes
The secondary betting tip is that both teams will score. Despite Milan’s sound defensive profile, Fiorentina have shown an ability to find the net sporadically and may capitalise on set-pieces or transitional moments at the Artemio Franchi. Fiorentina have scored 18 goals this season and have at least shown resilience in attack during their recent fixtures; Milan, while organised at the back, have conceded 13 times across their league campaign. The head-to-head dynamic also suggests open spells in recent meetings. Therefore a Both Teams to Score (Yes) wager is credible: best quoted odd for this market in the provided data is Both Teams to Score — YES at Betwinner with odd 1.80.
3rd Betting Tip — Over 2.5 goals
The third betting selection favours Over 2.5 goals. The rationale is twofold: Fiorentina, under pressure near the foot of the table, are likely to pursue offensive options from the outset, and Milan’s approach away from home has combined control with efficient attacking transitions. Fixture context — one team needing points and the other able to press advantage — increases the probability of multiple goal-scoring opportunities. Best odds for Over 2.5 Goals is 1.99 on 1Win. Market availability should be checked with your preferred bookmaker; the trend and match circumstances suggest Over 2.5 as a viable selection.
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Statistics for Fiorentina vs AC Milan
Fiorentina team news!
Fiorentina, coached by Paolo Vanoli, have endured a difficult campaign and occupy 18th place with a total of 12 points. Their record reads 2 wins, 6 draws and 10 defeats, with a goal differential of 18 scored versus 28 conceded. At home they have managed just 2 wins from 9 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats), which underlines vulnerability on familiar turf. Manager Paolo Vanoli faces the challenge of tightening defensive discipline while extracting more consistent attacking returns from his forwards. Tactical pragmatism and set-piece organisation will be crucial if Fiorentina are to frustrate Milan and claim points.
AC Milan team news!
AC Milan, under the stewardship of Massimiliano Allegri, are positioned second in Serie A with 38 points and have formed one of the league’s most robust units. Their overall record of 11 wins, 5 draws and just 1 defeat demonstrates balance and efficiency; they have scored 28 goals while conceding only 13. Notably, Milan have been unbeaten away in the league (5 wins, 3 draws), a statistic that demonstrates their capacity to perform under travel conditions and sustain a compact defensive structure. Allegri’s experience in managing high-stakes matches and adjusting tactics to exploit opposition weaknesses strengthens Milan’s status as pre-match favourites.
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H2H statistics
Head-to-head across the last five meetings in all competitions favours AC Milan: Fiorentina have recorded 1 win, there has been 1 draw and Milan have claimed 3 victories. The most recent direct meeting ended 2:1 to AC Milan, reinforcing Milan’s recent superiority in the fixture. Historical patterns indicate Milan’s ability to leverage tactical discipline and individual quality in decisive moments, while Fiorentina have intermittently produced competitive displays but lack consistency.
Last results Fiorentina
In their last five fixtures across all competitions, Fiorentina have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. The immediate form suggests a side with mixed results: capable of positive outcomes but also susceptible to setbacks. The most recent league outing was a 2:2 away draw at Lazio, which highlights both an ability to score and a propensity to concede.
Last results AC Milan
AC Milan’s last five matches show a stronger sequence: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. The pattern underlines momentum and squad depth, while the most recent result — a 1:0 away victory at Cagliari — exhibits defensive solidity combined with clinical finishing. Milan’s form and resilience away from home are important considerations when assessing the likely outcome.
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Conclusion
In conclusion, AC Milan enter this fixture as clear favourites on the basis of league position, recent form, defensive record and away consistency. Fiorentina’s necessity to take risks at home increases the likelihood of an open game, which supports secondary selections such as Both Teams to Score (Yes) and Over 2.5 goals. The principal prediction is an away win for AC Milan Win (DNB). Complementary bets—Both Teams to Score (Yes), Over 2.5 goals, and an illustrative correct score of 1:2—reflect an expectation of Milan control with Fiorentina managing to score at least once. As always, bettors should consider team news, starting line-ups and any late injury or suspension information before placing stakes.
