Mali vs Senegal Prediction
This fixture pits two of West Africa’s most respected national sides against one another in the Africa Cup of Nations group phase on this Friday, 09.01.2026, 7:00 PM GMT+3 at Stade de Tanger. Senegal top the group on seven points after two wins and a draw, having scored seven goals and conceded one. Mali sit second on three points courtesy of three draws, with a goals tally of 2:2. The most recent direct encounter ended in a 2:1 victory for Senegal, and the head-to-head over the last five meetings favours the Lions with three wins and two draws. Both teams arrive at Stade de Tanger in good form and unbeaten in their respective last five matches, making this an intriguing tactical contest.
We present our AFCON free betting tips and analysis to give you an edge towards winning your next bet.
Main Betting Tip: Under 2.5 Goals
This match is likely to be a low-scoring affair on defensive grounds, which suggests the most likely outcome to be no more than 2 goals. The under 2.5 goals is a plausible market for this match, especially seeing Mali’s defensive quality after they managed to control the game in their recent clash that made them qualify to the quarter final against the Senegalese. Senegal’s attack has produced seven goals in group play, showing they can score multiple goals. Mali might change this free flow of goals and give Senegal a challenge in seeing the back of the net.
Betting Tip 2: Senegal (DNB)
Senegal are the favourites to claim victory in this encounter. Their group-stage performance has been authoritative, producing seven goals while conceding only once. The side’s attacking cohesion and depth give them an edge over Mali, who have struggled to convert dominance into victories despite remaining unbeaten in their recent fixtures. Senegal’s recent form of four wins and one draw in their last five matches indicates consistent momentum under coach Pape Thiaw, whereas Mali’s series of draws suggests difficulty in finishing decisive moments despite resilience under Tom Saintfiet.
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Betting Tip 3: Both teams score? No
While Senegal possess an incisive attack, they have also demonstrated a disciplined defensive record in the tournament, conceding just one goal so far. Mali’s goal total is modest and their three draws indicate matches that have often been low on scoring flare. Given Senegal’s ability to control possession and limit opposition opportunities, the probability of a clean sheet for Senegal is credible. Selecting “Both teams score? No” reflects an expectation that Senegal will secure a narrow victory while restricting Mali’s chances to convert.
This selection is supported by Senegal’s efficient defensive performance in the tournament and Mali’s tendency toward low-scoring draws.
Statistics for Mali vs Senegal
Mali team news!
Coach Tom Saintfiet has guided Mali through a series of tightly contested matches. In the tournament group stage they have collected three points from three draws, with a goal difference of 2:2. Recent form across all competitions shows Mali with one win and four draws in their last five fixtures, an unbeaten run that underlines their organisation and resilience but also highlights an inability to convert matches into wins routinely. Key tactical notes: Saintfiet’s teams are typically compact, focus on defensive structure, and seek to exploit set-piece situations. Team selection is likely to prioritise defensive balance and cautious progression through midfield in order to limit Senegal’s attacking transitions.
Senegal team news!
Under coach Pape Thiaw, Senegal sit atop the group with two wins and a draw, scoring seven and conceding just one in the process. Their five-match form shows four victories and one draw, indicating a side in strong competitive rhythm. Senegal’s attacking unit has been effective at creating and finishing chances, while the defensive unit has maintained consistency. Thiaw will likely field a lineup that balances offensive potency with defensive discipline, aiming to control the tempo and exploit wide areas and quick transitions against Mali.
H2H statistics
The two sides have met frequently in recent years. Over the last five meetings across all competitions, Mali have recorded 0 wins, two matches ended in draws and Senegal claimed three victories. The most recent direct meeting ended 2:1 in favour of Senegal. Historical head-to-head numbers favour Senegal, and that trend, coupled with current form, points to the Lions as the stronger side on paper.
Last results Mali
In their last five outings across all competitions, Mali have registered one win, four draws and no defeats. Their current form indicates they are unbeaten but often share the spoils rather than converting matches into full victories. This pattern suggests competitive solidity but an absence of clinical finishing in crucial moments.
Last results Senegal
Senegal’s last five matches across all competitions have produced four wins and one draw, with no defeats. The side’s recent run demonstrates greater attacking productivity and a consistent ability to secure three points. Senegal’s form profile is superior in terms of victories, indicating momentum and confidence heading into this encounter.
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Conclusion
Taking into account current form, head-to-head history and tournament statistics, Senegal enter this match as clear favourites. Their superior goalscoring record in the group stage, combined with a robust defensive record and recent winning momentum under Pape Thiaw, gives them an advantage over a Mali team that, while unbeaten, has struggled to convert draws into wins. Our recommended outcome is a Senegal victory, with ancillary selections favouring a low-scoring match in terms of Mali failing to score and a conservative correct-score estimate of 0:1 to Senegal. Primary betting prediction: Under 2.5 Goals, while the Senegal (DNB) and Both teams to score? No remains an alternative pick.
