Morocco vs Mali Prediction
The Africa Cup of Nations Group A fixture between Morocco and Mali will be played on Friday, 26 December 2025 at Stade Moulay Abdellah, kicking off at 11:00 PM GMT+3. Morocco enter the match in first place in Group A with 3 points from one match (1 win, 0 draws, 0 defeats) and a goal difference of 2:0. Mali sit second in the group with 1 point (0 wins, 1 draw, 0 defeats) and a goal difference of 1:1. The teams meet following Morocco’s 2:0 victory in their most recent group game and Mali’s 1:1 draw. Historically, Morocco has been the stronger side in head-to-head meetings, with three wins from the last five encounters, one draw, and one win for Mali. The coaches on either side are Walid Regragui for Morocco and Tom Saintfiet for Mali.
Our analysis includes the three free betting tips for each game to allow you make an effective use of the bet builders.
Main Betting Tip: Both teams score? No (BTTS: No)
Backing “Both teams do not score” (BTTS: No) rests on Morocco’s defensive solidity and the likelihood that Mali may struggle to break down a compact Moroccan backline marshalled by Regragui’s tactical approach. Morocco have conceded no goals in group play to date and their recent string of victories has included several clean sheets. Mali have shown resilience and capacity to score, but their finishes in recent matches have been inconsistent, and they were held to a draw in their opening group game. Given Morocco’s discipline and Mali’s attack not yet operating at full fluency against high-quality opponents, the conservative, lower-risk play is to expect one side — likely Mali — to be kept off the scoresheet.
Betting Tip 2: Morocco to win
Morocco is favoured to take the three points in this encounter. The primary reasons for backing Morocco are their superior recent form, stronger head-to-head record, and the tactical stability provided by coach Walid Regragui. Morocco has begun the tournament positively and arrived with momentum, having recorded a string of wins in their preparations and competitive fixtures. They also boast a clean defensive record in the group so far (2:0), while Mali’s attack has not yet demonstrated clinical consistency at this finals stage.
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Betting Tip 3: Over 2.5 goals
Although this market may appear to conflict with the BTTS No selection, it should be treated as an independent market bet. The rationale for selecting Over 2.5 goals is that Morocco possess significant attacking quality and are capable of producing a high-scoring display against an opponent who can be vulnerable on transitions. Mali have shown they can score in the tournament and may push forward in search of points, particularly if they fall behind early. A match dynamic in which Morocco score twice and Mali either reply or concede further goals from set-pieces or counters could easily push the total above 2.5. This bet is therefore a higher-variance alternative for bettors who anticipate open play and scoring opportunities.
Statistics for Morocco vs Mali
Morocco team news!
Coach Walid Regragui has overseen a team that enters this match with confidence and momentum. Morocco top Group A with a perfect start and have shown a blend of defensive organisation and attacking potency. In the tournament so far Morocco have recorded one win and kept a clean sheet, leading to a 2:0 goal tally. Their recent wider form is excellent, with five wins from their last five matches in all competitions, indicating consistent match-winner mentality and good squad depth. Domestic-based and Europe-based personnel have contributed to a balanced squad; tactical flexibility under Regragui allows Morocco to adapt between a compact defensive posture and incisive forward movement. At stadium level, Morocco will be keen to exploit home familiarity and the crowd to unsettle Mali.
Mali team news!
Under coach Tom Saintfiet, Mali are compact and competitive. Mali currently have one point from the opening group match and a goal record of 1:1 in the competition. Their recent overall form prior to and into the tournament reads as two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five matches, reflecting solidity but also occasional lapses that can be exploited by top-level opponents. Mali have shown tactical discipline, but they will need to find a way to unlock Morocco’s disciplined back line and limit the hosts’ transitions. Saintfiet is likely to prepare a pragmatic plan aimed at denying space centrally while attempting to hit on the counter; successful execution will be crucial if Mali are to escape Rabat with positive results.
H2H statistics
Head-to-head over the last five meetings between these nations favours Morocco: three wins for Morocco, one draw and one win for Mali. The most recent direct meeting ended in a 2:0 victory for Morocco. Historically Morocco have enjoyed marginal superiority and have tended to impose results through structured defending combined with clinical finishing. Mali’s single victory in the five-match sequence demonstrates they are capable of breaking Morocco’s rhythm on occasion, but the statistical trend is weighted towards the Moroccan side.
Last results Morocco
In their last five matches across all competitions Morocco have recorded five wins, no draws and no defeats. This sequence underlines a current run of excellent form and a team that arrives with clear match rhythm and confidence. The immediate form suggests cohesion in both attack and defence and bodes well for Morocco’s prospects in this fixture.
Last results Mali
Over their last five matches in all competitions, Mali have recorded two wins, two draws and one defeat. This run indicates a team that is difficult to break down and capable of securing points, but lacks the consistent winning momentum that Morocco currently possess. Mali’s form is solid but not spectacular, and they must improve their offensive output to challenge the tournament favourites.
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Conclusion
On balance, Morocco are the favourites for this Group A fixture. Their superior recent form, favourable head-to-head record, and the organisational clarity provided by coach Walid Regragui place them in the strongest position to secure victory. Mali will present organisation and resilience under Tom Saintfiet, and they retain the capacity to cause problems on the counter, but their less convincing attacking record and the challenge of penetrating Morocco’s disciplined defensive block reduce the likelihood of them taking full points. Our principal stance is therefore a Both Teams to Score, NO, Morocco win (Tip 1) and Over 2.5 Goals.
