Senegal vs Morocco Prediction
The Africa Cup of Nations comes down to this high-stakes final between Senegal and Morocco on Sunday, 18.01.2026 at 10:00. The fixture will take place at Stade Moulay Abdellah and represents one of the marquee ties of the competition. Both nations arrive in excellent recent form, having remained unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions. Their last direct meeting concluded dramatically: Morocco prevailed on penalties, 5:3, after a 1:1 draw that persisted through extra time. That recent history, together with the competitive pedigree of both sides, ensures that this fixture will be contested with intensity and tactical discipline.
This preview offers an analytical assessment of both teams, a set of considered betting predictions and reasoning for each selection, as well as relevant statistical context and a conclusion on the likely outcome.
Get ahead of the action at AFCON! Check out today’s Africa Cup of Nations betting tips, packed with expert insights to help you make smarter picks throughout the tournament.
Main Betting Tip: Morocco Win (Draw No Bet)
Prediction: Morocco Win (DNB) sits at 1.52 with Betway. Rationale: Morocco carries a recent psychological and practical advantage from the teams’ most consequential direct encounter, having won the penalty shootout in their previous meeting. Both nations are in similar outward form—four wins and one draw each in their last five matches—but Morocco’s head-to-head superiority (four wins to Senegal’s one in the last five) and their experience in managing knockout-style pressure tilt the balance in their favour for a narrow victory. Tactically, Morocco under Walid Regragui has demonstrated resilience and the capacity to grind out close results against elite opponents, while Senegal, coached by Pape Thiaw, will be compelled to balance attacking ambition with defensive caution. Given the marginal differences between the sides and the venue, a Morocco win appears the most probable single-outcome bet. Best odds on Morocco Draw No Bet — 1.52 at Betway.
Tip 2: Both teams score? No
Prediction: Neither team scores at 1.75 with Paripesa. Rationale: Despite both teams’ strong offensive records in recent fixtures, their most consequential encounters have tended to be cagey and tactically conservative. The last decisive meeting finished 1:1 and required a penalty shootout; this suggests that when much is at stake, these teams can produce low-scoring, tightly contested matches. Morocco’s defensive organisation under Walid Regragui has been a hallmark of their recent success, and Senegal’s approach in major tournaments often prioritises defensive solidity, especially in knockout settings. A “Both teams to score — No” selection is therefore a sensible complement to the main match-winner prediction, anticipating a single-goal margin or a clean-sheet outcome for the victors. Best odds on BTTS: No — 1.75 at Paripesa.
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Tip 3: Correct Score 0-1 for Morocco
Prediction: 0:1 Win for Morocco at best odds with Paripesa. Rationale: Combining the assessments above, the most consistent scenario across match-winner and BTTS markets is a slender, away victory for Morocco with a clean sheet. A 0:1 correct-score forecast aligns with Morocco’s historical ability to secure narrow wins against Senegal and reflects their penalty shootout triumph in the most recent decisive meeting. This exact-score choice offers a conservative, low-risk projection that mirrors the expectation of tactical caution and small margins. Best odds on correct score: 0:1 — best price explicitly listed at Paripesa.
Statistics for Senegal vs Morocco
Senegal team news!
Coach: Pape Thiaw
Senegal enters the fixture under the management of Pape Thiaw and with substantial momentum: their most recent competitive result was a 1:0 victory over Egypt, and their form across the last five fixtures stands at four wins and one draw, with no defeats. This run highlights a well-organised squad combining defensive discipline and attacking threat. Pape Thiaw’s selection choices and tactical configuration will be pivotal; Senegal commonly relies on transitional speed and set-piece proficiency to break down compact defences. Fitness and squad availability will determine whether they can sustain their unbeaten run against a tactically astute Moroccan side.
Morocco team news!
Coach: Walid Regragui
Walid Regragui’s Morocco have similarly recorded strong form—four wins and a draw in their last five matches—with their most recent notable result a penalty shootout victory over Nigeria following a goalless draw. Morocco’s structure under Regragui emphasises defensive organisation, disciplined pressing, and efficient counter-attacks. Their success in tight encounters and ability to manage high-pressure situations such as penalty shootouts will be central to their prospects in this encounter. Morocco’s head-to-head superiority against Senegal in recent meetings also reinforces their confidence going into this match.
H2H statistics
The head-to-head record over the last five meetings shows a notable advantage for Morocco: 1 win for Senegal, 0 draws, and 4 wins for Morocco. The most recent direct meeting ended in a 1:1 draw after extra time, with Morocco prevailing 5:3 on penalties. That decisive outcome supplies Morocco with both tactical and psychological edges that could influence Sunday’s result.
Last results Senegal
In their last five matches across all competitions, Senegal have registered four wins and one draw, remaining unbeaten. This current form highlights consistent performances and defensive solidity under Pape Thiaw, suggesting the team is well-prepared and confident heading into a major knockout-stage fixture.
Last results Morocco
Morocco’s last five matches across all competitions have produced four wins and one draw, also remaining unbeaten. Under Walid Regragui, the team has demonstrated resilience, tactical discipline, and the capacity to manage matches that extend into extra time or penalties.
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Conclusion
Both Senegal and Morocco arrive in elite form, unbeaten across their past five fixtures, and both possess the tactical acumen necessary for a high-level Africa Cup of Nations showdown. On balance, Morocco is the marginal favourite owing to their superior head-to-head record in recent meetings and their demonstrated capacity to prevail in tight, high-pressure encounters. The most consistent and defensible forecast is a narrow Morocco victory; accordingly, the primary betting prediction is a Morocco win. Complementary markets that align with this outlook are “Both teams do not score” and a conservative correct-score prediction of 0:1 in favour of Morocco. Bettors seeking a higher-risk alternative may consider the Over 2.5 goals market, but the most probable outcome remains a close, low-scoring victory for Morocco. As always, bettors should confirm live odds and team news closer to kick-off before placing stakes.
