RB Leipzig vs Mainz Prediction
The Bundesliga returns to the Red Bull Arena on Saturday, 31 January 2026 (kick-off 17:30 GMT+3) for a Matchday 20 fixture that pits high-flying RB Leipzig against relegation-threatened Mainz 05. Leipzig, under coach Ole Werner, occupy fourth place with 36 points and have compiled a record of 11 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats, scoring 37 and conceding 25. Mainz 05, managed by Urs Fischer, sit 16th with 15 points from 3 wins, 6 draws and 10 defeats, with a goal difference of 21:32. The home side boast a strong record at the Red Bull Arena (7 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats), while Mainz’s away form is problematic (1 win, 3 draws, 5 defeats). The last direct meeting ended in a 1:0 win for Leipzig away from home.
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Main Betting Tip: Both teams score? Yes
The principal recommendation is that both teams will score. Defensive frailties on Mainz’s part (32 goals conceded) make it likely they will leak chances, while Leipzig’s offensive play frequently produces opportunities and goals. Mainz have shown they can trouble opponents in attack — their recent form includes positive results and a capacity to score — so a scenario in which Leipzig score and Mainz also find the net is credible. This market also benefits from Mainz’s tendency to play with urgency on the road, which can leave space for counter-attacks.
Betting Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals
Our second forecast favors over 2.5 goals. This selection reflects the expectation of an open contest: Leipzig’s offensive intent combined with Mainz’s porous defense suggests multiple goals from both sides. Recent fixtures for both teams have produced several goals and the head-to-head history contains high-scoring encounters. An Over 2.5 outcome aligns with the twin likelihoods that Leipzig will press for a decisive margin and Mainz will respond rather than sit entirely deep.
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Betting Tip 3: Correct score 2-1
Our final prediction is a correct-score forecast of 2:1 in favor of RB Leipzig. This particular scoreline balances attack and realism: it acknowledges Leipzig’s capacity to convert chances and secure a win while also admitting Mainz’s ability to score at least once. The 2:1 outcome is consistent with an open game where the hosts control possession and tempo but Mainz exploits transitional moments.
Statistics for RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05
RB Leipzig team news!
RB Leipzig arrive at this fixture occupying fourth place with 36 points. Their season record reads 11 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats, with a goal tally of 37 scored and 25 conceded. Ole Werner’s side have been particularly effective at home, registering seven victories from nine matches at the Red Bull Arena and remaining unbeaten in home draws. Their home record suggests confidence in exploiting Mainz’s defensive vulnerabilities. In addition to the statistical advantages, Leipzig’s recent form across five matches is mixed: two wins, one draw and two defeats, indicating that while they retain quality, they are not invulnerable. Tactical continuity under Werner and a balanced squad depth should still render Leipzig favourites for this tie.
Mainz 05 team news!
Mainz 05 occupy 16th place with 15 points, compiled from 3 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses, and a goals-for/goals-against of 21:32. Head coach Urs Fischer faces the challenge of improving an inconsistent side, especially in away fixtures where Mainz have secured just one victory, along with three draws and five defeats. The team’s form over the last five matches is decent relative to their league standing — two wins, two draws and one defeat — a sequence that shows Mainz can produce results but remain fragile defensively. Given their league position and away struggles, Mainz must deliver a disciplined performance to frustrate Leipzig and return with a positive outcome.
H2H statistics
The head-to-head record over the last five meetings across all competitions is balanced: two wins for RB Leipzig, one draw and two victories for Mainz 05. The most recent direct encounter ended 1:0 in favour of RB Leipzig away from home. While historical meetings show competitive encounters and occasional surprises, the current season context favours Leipzig, particularly given their superior league standing and home advantage.
Last results RB Leipzig
In their last five matches across all competitions, RB Leipzig have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats. This pattern indicates a team of fluctuating form: capable of strong performances but also vulnerable to setbacks. The current short-term form suggests Leipzig cannot be taken for granted, yet their overall season metrics and home record point to sustained competitiveness.
Last results Mainz 05
Across their most recent five fixtures in all competitions, Mainz 05 have achieved 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. That sequence reflects relative resilience and an ability to collect points, but it has not translated into consistent away performances. Mainz’s current form demonstrates fighting spirit, which could make them dangerous opponents despite the status of underdog.
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Conclusion
In conclusion, RB Leipzig should be regarded as clear favorites for this Bundesliga meeting at the Red Bull Arena. Their higher league position, superior home record and greater goal-scoring output under Ole Werner give them tangible advantages over a Mainz side that struggles away from home and concedes frequently. Nonetheless, Mainz under Urs Fischer have shown recent resilience and attacking enterprise, which supports the expectation of goals at both ends. Consequently, the primary forecast is a Both Teams to Score, Over 2.5 goals, and a most-likely correct score of 2:1 for the hosts.
