St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig Prediction
The Bundesliga returns on Saturday, 10.01.2026 (kick-off 17:30 GMT+3) with a mid-January clash at the Millerntor-Stadion as FC St. Pauli host RB Leipzig on Matchday 16. This fixture pairs a side battling to climb clear of the relegation zone with one of the league’s top contenders. FC St. Pauli sit 16th with 12 points from 15 matches (3 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, goals 13:26) and a mixed home record (2 wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats). RB Leipzig occupy fourth place on 29 points (9 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, goals 30:19) and have produced a generally solid away return (3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats). The teams last met with Leipzig claiming a 2:0 victory at the Millerntor, and their head‑to‑head across the last five meetings is evenly balanced (2 wins St. Pauli, 1 draw, 2 wins RB Leipzig). Given league positions, recent form and squad resources, this encounter offers compelling betting markets.
For confident wager in this weekend’s German top division, we argue to go for the Bundesliga predictions.
Main Betting Tip: Handicap -1 Leipzig Win
Betting prediction: Away win — RB Leipzig (Tip 2). Leipzig enter this fixture as the clear favourites on paper. Their superior squad depth, better goal return (30 scored) and higher league standing underline the gulf in resources and quality. While RB Leipzig arrive off a recent 1:3 home defeat to Bayer Leverkusen, this result should be viewed in the context of a top opponent rather than an indication of systemic decline; they remain more potent in attack and are routinely able to create clear scoring opportunities. FC St. Pauli’s limited offensive output (13 goals) and inconsistent home form expose them to counterattacks and set-piece vulnerability when facing teams with quality forward lines. Head coach Ole Werner’s side should have the tactical tools to exploit St. Pauli’s defensive frailties and convert chances over 90 minutes.
Betting Tip 2: Both teams score? Yes
For second pick we sugget a Both teams to score — Yes. Despite St. Pauli’s modest goal tally this season, they have shown resilience in recent fixtures and are capable of scoring at home, particularly against opponents that commit players forward like Leipzig. Conversely, Leipzig has a pronounced attacking threat but has conceded their share of goals, evidenced by a goals-against figure of 19 and a recent 1:3 defeat. The combination of RB Leipzig’s offensive ambition and St. Pauli’s willingness to engage on the front foot suggests both sides will find the target. Additionally, the direct-encounter history—featuring goals on both sides in several meetings—supports the likelihood of a BTTS outcome.
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Betting Tip 3: Over 2.5 Goals
The Over 2.5 market is recommended as the third selection. While St. Pauli have struggled for goals across the campaign, recent form shows an uptick in attacking contribution and defensive lapses from Leipzig have produced higher-scoring games intermittently. Leipzig’s attacking quality usually ensures they can breach defences, and if St. Pauli respond by taking risks to secure points at home, the match is likely to open up and produce multiple goals. Considering the tendencies of both teams and the probable game-plan — Leipzig seeking to control possession and St. Pauli attempting to capitalise on transitions — Over 2.5 presents a reasonable balance between risk and reward.
Statistics for FC St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli team news!
Managed by Alexander Blessin, FC St. Pauli arrive at the Millerntor-Stadion under pressure to lift their Bundesliga fortunes. The club sits 16th with 12 points from 15 matches. Home returns have been fragile: two wins, one draw and four defeats indicate an inconsistent ability to secure points on familiar turf. Offensively, St. Pauli have registered just 13 goals in the league, which places an onus on tactical discipline and set-piece efficiency to grind results out. Coach Blessin’s challenge will be to organize a compact defensive shape while extracting the maximum offensive potential from limited resources. Given their recent unbeaten run in five matches (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 defeats) they arrive with improved confidence, but translating that form into sustained defensive resilience against a high-calibre Leipzig attack will be the key concern.
RB Leipzig team news!
Under the stewardship of Ole Werner, RB Leipzig are vying for top positions and European contention. With 29 points and a goal difference that leans strongly positive (30 scored, 19 conceded), Leipzig demonstrate clear attacking prowess but also occasional defensive vulnerability. Their away record stands at three wins, two draws and three defeats, showing that while they can achieve results on the road, consistency remains the variable. Werner must balance an aggressive offensive setup with adjustments to avoid the kind of lapses that led to the recent 1:3 loss to Bayer Leverkusen. Leipzig’s depth and quality in forward positions should be decisive against St. Pauli, provided Werner can reinstate defensive compactness and limit transitions that favour the home side.
H2H statistics
The head-to-head record over the last five meetings across all competitions is finely balanced: two wins for FC St. Pauli, one draw and two wins for RB Leipzig. The last direct meeting ended in a 2:0 victory for Leipzig at the Millerntor, demonstrating that while St. Pauli can prevail on occasion, Leipzig has frequently asserted control. This equilibrium in historical results suggests that while Leipzig are favourites, the fixture has the potential for surprises and competitive balance.
Last results FC St. Pauli
Form guide (last five matches, all competitions): 2 wins, 3 draws, 0 defeats. FC St. Pauli’s current run is notable for its unbeaten stretch, showing resilience and an ability to take points even if victories are not abundant. Their most recent match was a 0:0 home draw against Werder Bremen, which underlines a capacity for defensive organisation but also highlights ongoing offensive limitations.
Last results RB Leipzig
Form guide (last five matches, all competitions): 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats. RB Leipzig’s recent results are mixed, with a capacity to beat strong opponents but also vulnerable moments, as illustrated by a 1:3 home loss to Bayer Leverkusen in their latest outing. The pattern suggests quality offset by intermittent lapses that need rectification before pivotal fixtures.
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Conclusion
In conclusion, RB Leipzig are the clear favourites for this encounter owing to superior squad quality, league position and goal-scoring capacity. Nonetheless, FC St. Pauli’s recent unbeaten run and home familiarity mean Leipzig cannot be complacent. Our primary recommendation is an away win for RB Leipzig (Tip 2), supplemented by a forecast that both teams will score and that the match will produce over 2.5 goals. For bettors seeking an exact-score consolation, a 1:1 draw is offered as an alternative prediction reflecting the realistic possibility of a close, competitive game should Leipzig fail to impose themselves fully. As always, consider current team news and starting line-ups before placing wagers and manage stakes responsibly.
