Benfica vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction
The Champions League returns to Estádio da Luz on Wednesday, 05.11.2025 at 11:00 PM GMT +3, when SL Benfica host Bayer Leverkusen in Matchday 4 of the group stage. This fixture pits a Benfica side that has struggled in the group (0 points, goals 2:7) against a Leverkusen team that has collected two points (goals 5:10). The context is clear: Benfica must seek a victory at home to stay in contention, while Leverkusen will aim to avoid falling further behind in a tightly contested section. The meeting brings together two teams with contrasting recent fortunes domestically and differing continental records, under the stewardship of José Mourinho for Benfica and Kasper Hjulmand for Leverkusen.
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Betting prediction — Double Chance – Benfica/Draw
Despite Benfica’s poor group-table position and zero points, the short-term indicators favour the hosts. Benfica arrive having recorded strong domestic form, with four wins and a single defeat in their last five matches across all competitions, including an authoritative 3:0 away victory in their most recent outing. José Mourinho’s experience in European competition, together with the imperative to secure three points at Estádio da Luz, should encourage a disciplined and focused Benfica performance. Leverkusen, while capable offensively, have shown vulnerability at times and suffered an important defeat in their last match, which raises questions about their confidence on the road. Best odds for the Double Chance – Benfica/Draw market: at 1win with odd 1.30.
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Both teams score? Yes
Betting tip: Both teams will score — Yes. The evidence suggests an open contest in which both sides are likely to find the net. Leverkusen have scored five goals in the group and demonstrated attacking potency across competitions, and Benfica have shown their capacity to score in domestic fixtures. Conversely, both defences have been breached on multiple occasions in European play (Benfica 7 conceded, Leverkusen 10 conceded), which supports the view that both teams can exploit chances. Expect a competitive game where offensive moments from each side translate into goals for both. Best odds for the both-teams-to-score market: Tip YES at Betwinner with odd 1.58.
Over/Under: Under 2.5 goals
Betting prediction: Under 2.5 goals. Although both teams can score, tactical caution is likely to temper the overall goal volume. Benfica, under Mourinho, often prioritise first not conceding in high-stakes fixtures and may adopt a structured defensive approach at home to control the match tempo. Leverkusen, having conceded frequently in the group, may also temper their attacking intent when facing a tactically disciplined side. The recent head-to-head history includes low-scoring encounters and the last direct meeting ended goalless, which reinforces the probability of a compact match with fewer than three total goals. Best odds for the Under/Over market: 2.09 on 1Win.
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Statistics for SL Benfica vs Bayer Leverkusen
SL Benfica team news!
Benfica enter this tie with worrying Champions League statistics — 0 points and a goals tally of 2 scored and 7 conceded — and a home group record that includes a defeat in the opening matches. Their domestic momentum, however, is a positive sign: in their last five matches across all competitions they recorded four wins and one defeat. José Mourinho remains the manager and his European pedigree is a significant factor; tactical organisation and match management are likely to be emphasised, particularly given Benfica’s pressing need to accumulate points in the group. Home advantage at Estádio da Luz will be a key element in Benfica’s game plan.
Bayer Leverkusen team news!
Leverkusen have accumulated two points in the group and show an overall group goal record of 5 scored and 10 conceded. Their away record in the competition shows a single draw and no defeats so far, but their recent form is mixed: three wins and two defeats in the last five matches across all competitions. Kasper Hjulmand leads the side and must reconcile an attack capable of producing goals with defensive lapses that have cost them. The team’s readiness to adapt tactically on the road will be decisive.
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H2H statistics
The most recent direct meeting between these teams ended 0:0. Looking at the last five meetings across all competitions, Benfica hold a narrow advantage in the head-to-head series: 2 wins for Benfica, 2 draws, and 1 win for Bayer Leverkusen. The historical record therefore suggests closely contested matches, often with limited margins.
Last results SL Benfica
In their last five matches across all competitions, SL Benfica have registered 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat. Their current form is therefore strong, particularly domestically, which underpins confidence that they can raise their level for a crucial Champions League fixture at Estádio da Luz.
Last results Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen’s recent sequence comprises 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last five matches across all competitions. Their form is more mixed, indicating periods of effectiveness but also moments of vulnerability that Benfica may exploit.
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Conclusion
On balance, Benfica are likely to get a positive result from the match: the home side’s recent run of victories, coupled with José Mourinho’s tactical acumen and the urgent need for points, make the DC – Benfica/Draw tip a logical primary bet. At the same time, the statistical profile of both teams — goals conceded in the group and Leverkusen’s offensive potential — supports the secondary view that both teams will score. Given the likelihood of tactical caution and historically low-scoring head-to-head encounters, Under 2.5 goals is a credible complementary selections. As always, bettors should consider match-day information such as injuries, line-ups and weather before staking.
