Ourense CF vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction
The Copa del Rey tie between Ourense CF and Athletic Bilbao is scheduled for Thursday, 18.12.2025, with kickoff at 9:00 PM GMT +3. This cup fixture pits a spirited Ourense side, managed by Daniel Llácer, against an experienced Athletic Bilbao team under Ernesto Valverde. The occasion provides an intriguing contrast between the ambitions of a lower-league upset-seeker and a La Liga heavyweight seeking to avoid an early exit from Spain’s premier domestic cup competition.
There are no prior competitive meetings recorded between these two clubs, so historical head-to-head form offers no guidance. The most recent results for both sides show Ourense in relatively good momentum, while Athletic arrive with mixed form and the pressure of being favorites to progress. The match will be contested in a knockout format, which often encourages cautious tactical approaches but can also produce decisive margins when one side asserts control. Below follow our detailed betting prediction and supplementary tips for this fixture.
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Betting prediction — 1X2: Athletic Bilbao to win
Our main betting prediction is a 1X2 selection in favour of Athletic Bilbao to claim victory. Despite cup football’s capacity for surprises, Athletic Bilbao possess superior squad quality, top-flight experience and a more consistent competitive rhythm at the higher level. Manager Ernesto Valverde’s side typically control games through organisation and ball circulation, and they should be able to impose those qualities here. Ourense have been resilient under Daniel Llácer, but the gap in individual quality and depth is the decisive factor in this matchup.
Why this is the best prediction: Athletic’s overall resources, tactical maturity and Cup experience make them the most reliable pick in a one-off knockout encounter, especially away from home against a lower-division opponent. The expectation is a controlled away win rather than a high-scoring shootout. Best odds on the market: ~1.70 (approximate best available for Athletic Bilbao to win).
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Betting tip — Both teams to score? No
We advise taking “Both teams to score? No” as the second betting tip. This selection reflects the likelihood that Athletic Bilbao will limit Ourense’s scoring opportunities through defensive discipline and possession management. Ourense have shown attacking intent in recent matches, but against a well-organised La Liga defence they may struggle to convert chances consistently. Athletic’s capacity to close down space and defend transitions makes a clean-sheet for the visitors a realistic outcome.
Why this is the best prediction: Cup ties where the superior team controls tempo often result in one team failing to score, especially when the favourite privileges defensive solidity to secure progression. Athletic’s recent organisational focus and the Copa context make “No” on BTTS a sensible, value-minded choice. Best odds on the market: ~1.90 (approximate best available for BTTS — No).
Betting tip — Over/Under: Under 2.5 goals
The third betting tip is an Under 2.5 goals selection. We expect a match defined by measured possession and defensive caution, particularly from Athletic Bilbao, who are likely to prioritize secure qualification rather than an all-out offensive display. Ourense may press and seek chances, but the expected difficulty in breaking down Athletic’s structure suggests a low-to-moderate scoring game.
Why this is the best prediction: Knockout fixtures featuring a favourite and underdog frequently produce compact scorelines; the opposition’s respect for the favourite plus strategic game management typically suppress total goals. Under 2.5 goals combines well with an away win and a “Both teams to score? No” stance. Best odds on the market: ~1.80 (approximate best available for Under 2.5 goals).
Betting tip — Correct score: Ourense 0 Athletic 2-0
As a fourth, more speculative betting tip we recommend the correct score prediction: Athletic Bilbao to win 2-0. This forecast aligns with the expectation of a controlled Athletic performance that delivers a decisive but not overly expansive margin. A 2-0 away victory reflects defensive control and enough attacking efficiency to secure progression without exposing the team to undue risk.
Why this is the best prediction: The combination of Athletic’s superior quality and a conservative cup approach frequently produces clean-sheet results with a two-goal margin. It is a conservative, plausible exact score that dovetails with the other suggested markets (away win, BTTS No, Under 2.5). Best odds on the market: ~8.50 (approximate best available for 0-2 correct score).
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Statistics for Ourense CF vs Athletic Bilbao
Ourense CF team news!
Ourense CF come into this tie under the stewardship of Daniel Llácer. Their recent sequence of results indicates form that is encouraging for the club: in the last five matches across all competitions Ourense have recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. The most recent outing was a 2:2 home draw against Barakaldo CF, which evidences attacking capability but also some defensive looseness. Llácer’s team appear confident and capable of producing goals, especially on home soil, but the defensive concessions remain an area of concern when facing technically superior opposition.
Athletic Bilbao team news!
Athletic Bilbao are managed by Ernesto Valverde, who brings significant coaching experience and a pragmatic approach to cup competitions. Athletic’s recent five-match sequence reads 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. Their most recent match ended in a 0:2 away loss to Celta de Vigo, suggesting they can be vulnerable on the road. Nonetheless, Valverde’s side have higher-calibre personnel and tactical discipline which generally suit the demands of a knockout tie. Injuries and selection decisions will influence how conservative or expansive Athletic approach this fixture.
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H2H statistics
No head-to-head competitive meetings have been recorded between Ourense CF and Athletic Bilbao. The record stands at 0 meetings: 0 wins for Ourense CF, 0 draws, and 0 wins for Athletic Bilbao. This lack of prior direct encounters means preparations will rely on scouting individual tendencies and recent form rather than historical matchup data.
Last results Ourense CF
In the last five matches across all competitions, Ourense CF have produced 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. Their current form can be described as positive and forward-moving; the team have demonstrated an ability to secure victories and mount an attacking threat. The recent 2:2 draw with Barakaldo CF underscores both their offensive potential and occasional defensive lapses.
Last results Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao’s last five-match record shows 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. The form is somewhat inconsistent, with a recent 0:2 defeat away to Celta de Vigo highlighting susceptibility on the road. Despite that, Athletic maintain a higher baseline quality and experience that typically serves them well in cup ties, especially under the guidance of Ernesto Valverde.
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Conclusion
In conclusion, Athletic Bilbao enter this Copa del Rey fixture as clear favourites given their superior squad depth, tactical nous and experience at a higher level of competition. Ourense CF, led by Daniel Llácer, arrive in good domestic form and will be motivated to produce an upset at home; however, the balance of probability favours an Athletic victory. Our recommended outcome is an away win for Athletic Bilbao, accompanied by a low-scoring match where the visitors keep a clean sheet — hence the supporting tips of “Both teams to score? No”, Under 2.5 goals, and a plausible correct score of 0-2. Bettors should consider odds movement and team news ahead of kickoff, but the conservative, value-focused approach outlined here best reflects the available information and competitive context for this Copa del Rey encounter.
