Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid prediction
The Primera División resumes with an intriguing fixture at San Mamés on Saturday, 06.12.2025 (kick-off 11:00 PM GMT +3), when Athletic Bilbao welcome Atlético Madrid for Matchday 15. Athletic enter the contest placed eighth with 20 points, having recorded six wins, two draws and seven defeats, and a goal tally of 14:20. Their home form reads four wins, one draw and three defeats. Atlético Madrid sit fourth with 31 points from nine wins, four draws and two defeats, scoring 28 and conceding 14; their away record currently stands at two wins, three draws and two defeats. The most recent direct meeting ended in a 1:0 victory for Atlético; over the last five head-to-head encounters in all competitions Atlético have the edge with three wins to Athletic’s two.
This preview provides a considered appraisal of form, personnel and tactical trends, and sets out our betting predictions for the encounter.
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Betting prediction — Double Chance – Atletico Madrid/Draw
Our principal betting prediction for this fixture is a double chance – Atlético Madrid or draw. Atletico have under Diego Simeone maintained a consistently high level across competitions and currently occupy fourth place with a superior points total and a notably better goals-for return than Athletic Bilbao. Atlético’s last five-match sequence — four wins and a single defeat in all competitions — demonstrates momentum and greater consistency than Athletic, whose last five indicate two wins, one draw and two defeats. Athletic’s recent confidence may have been dented by a 0:3 home defeat against Real Madrid in their last match, whereas Atlético, despite a 1:3 loss at Barcelona, have otherwise been productive.
Ernesto Valverde’s Athletic will lean on the fortitude of San Mamés and a tactically disciplined approach, but Atlético’s balance between defensive organization and attacking potency gives them the edge. The head-to-head trend favors Atlético (3 wins in the last five meetings) and they also possess more reliable goal-scoring options this season (28 goals). For bettors seeking the best available price on this double chance X2 market, the best quoted odd is 1.29 (1win).
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Both teams score? Yes
Both teams to score is a compelling secondary betting tip. Athletic have recorded goals intermittently this season but have also shown defensive vulnerability, conceding 20 goals overall; Atlético, while stronger defensively in aggregate, have shipped goals in several recent away fixtures. The combination of Athletic’s willingness to press and Atlético’s tendency to create chances on the break suggests the match is likely to produce opportunities at both ends. Given the current statistical profile — Athletic averaging less than a goal a game but scoring at home, and Atlético boasting significant attacking output across the season — a “Both teams score — Yes” outcome is plausible and prudent. The best available market price for “Both teams to score — Yes” stands at 1.95 (Betwinner).
Over/Under: Over 2.5 goals
Our tertiary betting tip is an Over 2.5 goals selection. The justification for this prediction is twofold: Atlético’s matches have tended to be open when away to traditionally resilient sides, and Athletic’s defensive record shows susceptibility that opponents with clinical finishing can exploit. Athletic’s home fixtures can oscillate between tight low-scoring affairs and more open matches depending on the opponent; against a team of Atlético’s calibre there is a reasonable prospect of a contest where both sides convert chances. While neither club guarantees a high-scoring affair, the combination of Atlético’s attacking potency (28 goals) and Athletic’s defensive concessions supports an Over 2.5 stance as a viable option. Best-odds information for Over 2.5 goals is 2.20.
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Statistics for Athletic Bilbao vs Atlético Madrid
Athletic Bilbao team news!
Under the stewardship of Ernesto Valverde, Athletic Bilbao have compiled 20 points through 15 matchdays and occupy eighth position in the table. Their return of six wins, two draws and seven defeats reflects a side capable of strong home performances but inconsistent results overall. San Mamés remains an important venue for Athletic; their home record of four wins, one draw and three defeats indicates they can be competitive on familiar turf. Recent form — two wins, one draw and two defeats in the last five outings — suggests a team alternating between resilience and lapses, and the heavy 0:3 home loss to Real Madrid in their most recent match raises questions regarding their current defensive solidity and confidence.
Atlético Madrid team news!
Diego Simeone’s Atlético Madrid have amassed 31 points, placing them fourth in La Liga standings. Their season thus far shows nine wins, four draws and two defeats, with an impressive tally of 28 goals scored. Atlético’s away record stands at two wins, three draws and two defeats, which points to occasional fragility on the road but overall competitive resilience. The recent run of form — four wins and one defeat in the last five fixtures — underscores Atlético’s status as a team in superior momentum. Simeone’s organisational acumen and Atlético’s attacking depth make them the pre-match favourites, even when playing away at a hard-nosed venue such as San Mamés.
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H2H statistics
The head-to-head sequence across the last five encounters between Athletic Bilbao and Atlético Madrid shows Atlético with the advantage: three wins for Atlético and two for Athletic, with no draws in that set of five meetings. The most recent encounter concluded with a 1:0 victory for Atlético at home. This historical balance points to a rivalry where narrow margins often decide results and defensive discipline is frequently decisive.
Last results Athletic Bilbao
In their last five competitive matches Athletic Bilbao have achieved two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their current form is therefore mixed, exhibiting sporadic resilience offset by defensive frailties, the latter most recently exposed in a substantial home defeat.
Last results Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid’s last five matches show a strong sequence: four wins and one defeat. The current form of the team under Diego Simeone is robust, indicating momentum and a consistency that elevates them into the category of clear contenders for positive results in demanding away fixtures.
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Conclusion
On balance, Atlético Madrid enter this fixture as favourites owing to superior league position, a significantly better goals-for record, and more convincing recent form under Diego Simeone. Athletic Bilbao’s home advantage and San Mamés’ atmosphere render them a dangerous opponent, particularly given their capacity to produce disciplined defensive performances. Our leading recommendation is an double chance – Atletico Madrid or draw, supported by an expectation that both teams will find the net and that the match could produce more than 2.5 goals.
