Real Madrid vs Valencia prediction
The Primera División returns to the Santiago Bernabéu on Saturday, 01.11.2025 at 11:00 PM GMT +3, when league leaders Real Madrid entertain Valencia FC in Matchday 11. This fixture pits the dominant home side — coached by Xabi Alonso — against a Valencia team seeking consistency under Carlos Corberán. The numerical disparity in the table and recent form frames Real Madrid as clear favourites: Los Blancos sit top with 27 points (9 wins, 0 draws, 1 defeat; goals 22:10) and an unblemished home record of five wins in five. Valencia, by contrast, occupy 18th with 9 points (2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats; goals 10:16) and have yet to win away this season (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats). The recent direct meeting that produced a 2:1 away victory for Valencia underlines that cup and derby dynamics can create surprises, but current form and squad superiority place Real Madrid firmly in the role of favourites.
Betting predictions
Over/Under prediction — Under 2.5 goals
Betting prediction: Under 2.5 goals. While Real Madrid are capable of scoring multiple goals, the contest is expected to unfold with measured tempo and tactical caution, particularly in the early and middle phases, as both managers prioritise structure. Valencia’s away caution and Real Madrid’s capacity to control possession and tempo reduce the probability of a high-scoring contest. Our specific pick is Under 2.5 goals as the best balance between probability and value given defensive tendencies and game context. Best available Over/Under reference at Betwinner in the supplied data: Under 2.5 goals odds 2.91.
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Second prediction — Real Madrid Win
Betting prediction: Real Madrid to secure a home victory stands as the primary selection. The home side’s extraordinary domestic form, strong attacking output (22 goals in ten matches) and perfect Santiago Bernabéu record this season combine to make a Real Madrid victory the most probable outcome. Xabi Alonso’s team has demonstrated balance between offensive potency and defensive organisation, while Valencia’s defensive frailties and poor away record (no wins, three defeats in five) reduce their prospects in the capital. Best available odd for the 1X2 market at Paripesa: Tip 1 at 1.20.
Both teams score? No
Betting prediction: Both teams will not score (BTTS: No). Defensively disciplined performances from Real Madrid and Valencia’s limited away attacking efficiency inform this selection. Real Madrid have conceded 10 goals in ten fixtures but have tightened considerably at home; Valencia, despite flashes of offensive promise, have struggled to convert away and often labour to impose sustained pressure against elite opposition. A conservative match plan from Xabi Alonso’s side, combined with Valencia’s tactical caution under Carlos Corberán in hostile venues, increases the likelihood of a clean sheet for the hosts. Best available odd at Betwinner for BTTS: NO — 1.89.
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Statistics for Real Madrid vs Valencia FC
Real Madrid team news!
Under the stewardship of Xabi Alonso, Real Madrid have produced outstanding domestic form: 27 points from ten matches places them first in the table with nine wins and a single defeat. The team has struck 22 goals while conceding 10, reflecting a positive goal difference and attacking efficiency. At the Santiago Bernabéu they are imperious this term — five home wins from five gives them a perfect home record in the league. Recent momentum is considerable: Real Madrid have won their last five matches across all competitions, signalling high confidence, sharpness in final third play, and organisational consistency. Alonso’s tactical approach emphasises controlled possession, vertical transitions and a coherent defensive structure; these attributes will be decisive against visitors who must manage pressure and space.
Valencia FC team news!
Valencia FC, coached by Carlos Corberán, face a testing fixture against the league leaders. The orange-and-black outfit have accumulated 9 points from ten matches (2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats) and have struggled away from home, registering no wins, two draws and three defeats on the road. Valencia’s goal return stands at 10 scored and 16 conceded, exposing defensive vulnerabilities that are more acutely punished by top-level opposition. Recent form has been mixed: across their last five fixtures they have obtained one win, one draw and three defeats, a sequence that underlines inconsistency and the difficulty of sustaining attacking impetus in away settings. Corberán’s tactical discipline can frustrate stronger sides, but squad depth and away offensive productivity remain concerns.
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H2H statistics
The most recent direct meeting prior to this encounter resulted in a 2:1 away victory for Valencia FC, demonstrating that single-match factors can overturn season trends. Looking at the last five meetings across all competitions, the head-to-head record is evenly balanced: 2 wins for Real Madrid, 1 draw, and 2 wins for Valencia. This historical parity underscores that while season form favours the hosts, Valencia have previously obtained favourable results and cannot be dismissed absolutely.
Last results Real Madrid
In their last five matches across all competitions Real Madrid have recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats. The current form of the team is therefore excellent: a sequence of consecutive victories has bolstered confidence, squad cohesion and momentum under Xabi Alonso, positioning the side as the domestic benchmark.
Last results Valencia FC
Valencia FC’s last five matches across all competitions show 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats. This form indicates vulnerability and inconsistency. The recent results suggest that the team has struggled to maintain positive outcomes with any regularity, particularly in away fixtures where their tactical conservatism has not always translated into points.
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Conclusion
On balance, Real Madrid enter this fixture as overwhelming favourites. The combination of superior league position, home invincibility this season, recent five-match winning streak and managerial clarity under Xabi Alonso make a home win the most probable outcome. Valencia FC possess the organisational tools to produce a resilient performance, and recent history indicates they can spring surprises, but their inconsistent away form and limited attacking returns away from Mestalla weaken their prospects. Our considered forecast is Under 2.5 Goals, a Real Madrid victory, and both teams will not score.
