Burnley vs Chelsea prediction
The Premier League returns to Turf Moor on Saturday, 22 November 2025, when Burnley FC host Chelsea FC in a Matchday 12 fixture. Kick-off is scheduled for 3:30 PM GMT+3. This encounter pits a side fighting to climb away from the lower reaches of the table against a club bidding to maintain its early-season momentum and a top-four position. Burnley sit 17th with 10 points, having recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats and scoring 14 while conceding 22. At home they have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and suffered 2 defeats. Chelsea occupy 3rd place with 20 points from 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, a goal difference reflecting 21 scored and 11 conceded; their away record reads 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. The last direct meeting finished in a 2:2 draw. Managers Scott Parker (Burnley) and Enzo Maresca (Chelsea) will prepare their squads for a contest that looks likely to favour the visitors on form and squad balance.
While the Blues are on the road, away from London, their other city rivals will be locking horns to secure a point at home. Find out more about this weekend’s London derby in our EPL predictions.
Main Betting Tip: HC -1 Chelsea Win
Chelsea are the clear favourites to secure all three points at Turf Moor. Their superior points tally, positive goal difference, and stronger away record provide a statistical basis for backing an away victory. Chelsea arrive having recorded three wins, one draw, and one defeat in their last five matches across all competitions, including a comprehensive 3:0 home victory in their most recent fixture. Burnley have endured a mixed spell, with two wins and three defeats in their last five and a recent 2:3 away loss to West Ham United. Enzo Maresca’s side possesses more consistent attacking output and greater defensive stability this season; these factors combine to make an away success the most probable outcome.
Betting Tip 2: Both teams score? No
Despite Burnley’s occasional offensive threat, Chelsea has exhibited a robust defensive record, conceding only 11 goals in the league to date. Given Chelsea’s tendency to control matches and Burnley’s vulnerability away to stronger sides, the expectation here is that Chelsea will restrict Burnley’s chances and that the visitors can secure a narrow victory without the hosts necessarily scoring. The market for “Both teams to score — No”, therefore, looks attractive from a risk/reward perspective, especially in combination with an away win selection in multiple-bet strategies.
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Betting Tip 3: Over 2.5 goals
Although the selections above point toward a Chelsea win with the hosts failing to score, the Over/Under market presents a separate consideration. The recent fixtures for both clubs have demonstrated the potential for open games: Chelsea’s attacking play has produced multiple-goal matches, and Burnley, while defensively susceptible, can also score. Taking the Over 2.5 goals option accounts for the possibility of a closely contested match with sufficient offensive moments to produce three or more total goals. For bettors favouring a goals-based approach rather than a strict match-winner, the Over 2.5 goals line represents a viable option.
Statistics for Burnley FC vs Chelsea FC
Burnley FC team news!
Under the stewardship of Scott Parker, Burnley have endured a challenging start to the campaign. The Clarets sit 17th with 10 points after 11 matches and a goals tally of 14 scored and 22 conceded. Their home form is mixed: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats at Turf Moor shows they can be competitive on their own grass but remain vulnerable against higher-quality opposition. Recent momentum is inconsistent; while Burnley have achieved two victories in their last five outings, defensive lapses have also been a recurring issue. The club will be searching for improvements in concentration and transitional defending if they are to upset Chelsea at home.
Chelsea FC team news!
Chelsea, managed by Enzo Maresca, have established themselves among the early-season frontrunners, sitting third in the table with 20 points and a strong goal difference of +10. Their away record — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat — indicates the team is comfortable on the road. Chelsea’s current form shows three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five matches across competitions, including a convincing 3:0 home victory in their latest fixture. Enzo Maresca will be aiming to maintain defensive discipline while exploiting Burnley’s defensive weaknesses with quick transitions and set-piece efficiency.
H2H statistics
The head-to-head record over the last five meetings across all competitions favours Chelsea: Burnley have not registered a win, there have been two draws and three victories for Chelsea. The most recent direct meeting ended in a 2:2 draw, indicating that while Chelsea have dominated the majority of recent encounters, Burnley are capable of producing resilient performances and goals on occasion. Historical data suggests Chelsea have the edge in squad depth and consistency.
Last results Burnley FC
In their most recent sequence of five matches across all competitions Burnley have recorded 2 wins and 3 defeats, with no draws. Their current form is therefore mixed but trending toward inconsistency, underscored by the narrow away defeat in their latest match. This pattern illustrates that Burnley can produce competitive displays but also remain susceptible to conceding multiple goals.
Last results Chelsea FC
Chelsea’s last five matches have produced 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. The side’s recent form is markedly more stable than Burnley’s, culminating in a convincing home victory in their most recent outing. This run reflects both attacking potency and a relatively sound defensive approach under the current management.
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Conclusion
Taking all available information into account — league position, recent form, head-to-head record and home/away performance — Chelsea enter this fixture as clear favourites. Their superior defensive record, more consistent results in recent weeks and greater goal-scoring capacity mean an away victory is the most probable outcome. Our principal recommendation is a Handicap -1 away win for Chelsea. Complementary selections include Both teams to score — No and the Over 2.5 goals market for those anticipating an open contest with multiple goal involvements.
