Latvia vs England prediction
The European qualifying campaign for the 2026 World Cup returns to Daugava on Tuesday, 14 October 2025, with Latvia hosting England in Group K. Kick-off is scheduled for 21:45 GMT+3. England top the group with a perfect record and an imperious defensive record, while Latvia lie fourth and will look to make the home advantage count in a difficult fixture. The fixture pits a side that has accumulated 15 points from five matches against a Latvian team on five points after six games. England arrive off the back of a convincing 3:0 victory over Wales, while Latvia drew 2:2 at home with Andorra in their most recent outing.
This preview provides an analytical assessment of both teams ahead of the meeting, followed by the bookmaker-backed betting predictions for the match, rationale for each selection and the best available odds for the markets mentioned.
We have a collection of World Cup qualifiers 2026 predictions for Africans and individuals from other continents.
Main Tip: England Win (Tip 2)
England are clear favourites to secure victory in Riga. They have won all five of their qualifying matches to date, scoring 13 goals and conceding none, while they are unbeaten away from home with two wins in two away fixtures. Latvia’s overall record in the group has been modest: one victory, two draws and three defeats with a goal difference of 4:8, and they have yet to register a home win in qualifying (0 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat). The last direct meeting resulted in a 3:0 win for England, a scoreline that underlines the gulf in quality and results between the sides in recent encounters. England’s superior form, depth, defensive solidity (no goals conceded in the campaign so far) and superior away record make them the natural pick to win. Latvia’s recent match form also includes no wins in their last five matches, highlighting their difficulties in converting opportunities into results.
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Betting Tip 2: Both Teams To Score? No
We forecast that England will keep a clean sheet in this fixture. England’s campaign to date (13:0) demonstrates a defence that has been both organised and effective. Latvia have struggled to produce goals regularly at international level in this campaign and their home matches have yielded limited scoring return. England’s discipline and tactical approach under normal circumstances make them likely to control the game pace and restrict Latvia’s attacking opportunities. England’s defensive record in qualifying combined with Latvia’s modest attacking output suggests a low probability that both teams will find the net. The visitors have shown an ability to dominate possession and neutralise chances against lower-ranked opponents, which should suppress Latvia’s scoring prospects. The best odds of this outcome is 1.32 on Betwinner.
While this is not a both teams to score tip, you can visit our BTTS prediction to view fixtures with a possibility of both sides scoring.
Betting Tip 3: Over 3.5 Goals
Despite expecting England to prevent Latvia from scoring, the forecast for a relatively high-scoring match is driven by the expectation that England will add multiple goals to their tally. England have demonstrated an efficient attack in qualifying and are capable of putting significant pressure on weaker defences. Latvia’s occasional defensive fragility has been exposed in the group, and when England find early breakthroughs, the match could open up, leading to several goal-scoring opportunities. The combination of England’s clinical finishing and Latvia’s mixed defensive form creates a realistic scenario for multiple goals. While the “both teams to score — No” tip anticipates a clean sheet for England, that does not preclude England recording multiple goals themselves, hence the selection of Over 3.5 as a value alternative for those expecting a clear victory with several goals.
Statistics for Latvia vs England
Latvia team news!
Latvia have accumulated 5 points from six qualifying matches, placing them fourth in Group K. Their record shows one win, two draws and three defeats, with a goal tally of 4 and eight conceded. Home form in qualifying is modest: no wins, two draws and one defeat so far at Daugava. In their last five matches across all competitions Latvia have failed to win any fixture, recording 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; their immediate form suggests difficulties in turning possession or chances into match-winning performances.
England team news!
England top Group K with 15 points gained from five matches; their group record reads five wins, zero draws and zero defeats, with an imposing goal difference of 13:0. They have maintained a perfect defensive record in qualifying to date and remain unbeaten away from home with two victories in two away fixtures. England’s recent run of form across competitions registers as 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in the last five matches, showing consistent winning momentum and squad depth.
H2H statistics
The last direct meeting between Latvia and England resulted in a 3:0 victory for England. Head-to-head data across the most recent meeting shows England with one win, Latvia with none and no draws in that one-match sample. That single recent result is illustrative of England’s ability to control this matchup historically.
Last results Latvia
In their last five fixtures across competitions Latvia have recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats. The current form is therefore winless and somewhat fragile, with the team struggling to convert matches into victories and showing vulnerability against higher-calibre opposition.
Last results England
England’s recent five-game sequence comprises 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat. The form indicates a team capable of consistent positive results, combining defensive resilience with offensive potency — an ideal profile for a qualifying front-runner.
Conclusion
England enter this fixture as clear favourites on both form and statistics. Their flawless qualifying record, nine clean sheets to date in competitive fixtures and superior goal difference underline the disparity between the sides. Latvia’s home record and recent lack of wins present a challenging environment for upsetting the odds. Taking into account tactical balance, historical context and current momentum, the most probable outcome is an England away victory, with a clean sheet and several goals to their name. The primary selection is therefore an away win for England, supplemented by predictions that both teams will not score, that the match will produce over 3.5 goals in total.
