Sweden vs Slovenia Prediction
The World Cup Qualifiers for Europe continue on Tuesday, 18 November 2025, when Sweden host Slovenia at the Strawberry Arena (kick-off 22:45 GMT+3) in Group B (matchday 10). Both sides arrive under pressure: Sweden occupy 4th place in the group with 1 point from five matches, while Slovenia sit in 3rd spot with 3 points. This encounter represents a crucial late opportunity for Sweden to arrest a worrying run of results on home soil and for Slovenia to try to consolidate their slightly better standing. The context, recent form and head-to-head history will shape expectations for the match and inform the recommended market selections below.
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Main Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Our primary betting tip is over 2.5 goals, as the hosts have sometimes conceded multiple goals (Sweden’s recent 1:4 defeat to Switzerland being a conspicuous example). Slovenia also conceded two in their latest outing away to Kosovo. The pattern of occasional heavy defeats suggests matches involving these sides may produce three or more goals, particularly if Sweden commit men forward in search of victory while Slovenia seek to avoid defeat on the road. For this reason, Over 2.5 is a plausible outcome, and this outcome is priced for the over 2.5 outcome on Paripesa is 2.20.
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Betting Tip 2: Both teams score? No
While conventional wisdom could point to an open match given the attacking deficiencies both teams have shown at times, Sweden’s recent defensive collapses have alternated with games in which they have struggled to create sustained chances. Slovenia’s qualifying campaign thus far has produced only two goals in total, and their away record shows no wins with just one draw and one defeat, suggesting they may find it difficult to breach a home side determined to tighten up. For punters seeking a conservative accumulator selection, “Both teams to score — No” offers a reasonable balance between risk and value given the market pricing. Best available price for the Both Teams To Score ? No is 1.67 on Paripesa.
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Betting Tip 3: Sweden Win – Tip 1
Despite an underwhelming campaign so far — Sweden have collected only a single point and endured four defeats in five qualifiers — the home advantage at Strawberry Arena and the psychological response to recent setbacks suggest Sweden are the most likely side to take the three points. Head-to-head history is mildly supportive: in the last four encounters Sweden have recorded one win and three draws, and the most recent direct meeting ended in a 2:2 draw, indicating Slovenia have often been held by Sweden rather than dominantly defeating them. Sweden also must press for a result to remain in contention, which may lead them to adopt a more committed approach. With odds of 1.53 on Paripesa, this option represents a valuable choice.
Statistics for Sweden vs Slovenia
Sweden team news!
Sweden have struggled in the qualification series, as they are currently fourth in the standings, after accruing only a point from five a matches. Without a win so far, they have been poor across the qualifiers, suffering four defeats, along with eleven goals conceded, while they have scored three.
Sweden arrive off a heavy away defeat—1:4 versus Switzerland—which exemplifies defensive vulnerabilities and a tendency to lose momentum once matches go against them. The low goal return and poor home record in qualifying amplify the pressure on the coach and players to recover.
Slovenia team news!
Slovenia are currently third in Group B with 3 points from five matches. So far, they are yet to register a win, recording three draws and two defeats, while they have scored two and conceded seven in that period.
They have failed to win on the road, with a draw and a defeat to show for their efforts away from home. Their string of draws indicates a team capable of being difficult to beat on occasion, but also one that struggles to convert stalemates into wins.
H2H statistics
The head-to-head ledger between Sweden and Slovenia across the last four meetings reads: Sweden 1 win, 3 draws, Slovenia 0 wins. The most recent direct meeting concluded in a 2:2 draw, underscoring a history of close contests and shared points rather than dominance by either side. Historically, Slovenia have often matched Sweden defensively but failed to turn that into consistent victories.
Last results Sweden
In their last five matches across all competitions Sweden have registered 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats. This current form line indicates a team in significant decline, with low morale and a pressing need for structural adjustments. The recent heavy loss away to Switzerland particularly highlights defensive frailties and inconsistent attacking production.
Last results Slovenia
Slovenia’s most recent five matches yield 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats. The prevailing form is one of resilience but limited cutting edge: the team has been able to secure draws but not convert opportunities into victories, and recent defeats demonstrate vulnerability when pressed.
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Conclusion
On balance, Sweden emerge as the favourites for this fixture primarily because they are at home, are in urgent need of points, and have historically avoided defeat to Slovenia in recent encounters. While both teams exhibit clear deficiencies — low scoring returns and defensive lapses — Sweden’s slightly stronger head-to-head record and the imperative to respond to poor form. Therefore, we back over 2.5 goals outcome, BTTS? No, and a home victory.
