Turkey vs Bulgaria Prediction
The European qualifying schedule for the 2026 FIFA World Cup sees Turkey host Bulgaria on Saturday, 15 November 2025 at 20:00 (GMT+3). This fixture, played at Bursa Metropolitan Stadium as part of WC-Quali. Europe Group E (matchday 9), offers Turkey an opportunity to consolidate their position in the group table, while Bulgaria face a crucial but daunting trip as they attempt to arrest a prolonged run of poor form.
Turkey approach this match positioned second in Group E with 9 points from four games (3 wins, 0 draws, 1 defeat) and a goal difference of 13:10. Their home record in qualifying stands at 1 win and 1 defeat. Bulgaria, by contrast, are bottom of the group with 0 points, having lost all four matches and scoring only once while conceding 16 overall; their away record reads 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats. The most recent head-to-head encounter between the sides was emphatic in Turkey’s favour, a 6:1 victory on Turkish soil. The managerial role for Turkey is occupied by Vincenzo Montella; Bulgaria enter the match with no permanent coach listed in the supplied data (coach: -).
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Main Betting Tip: HT/FT, 1/1
Turkey are clear favourites to take maximum points. They have superior recent form compared with Bulgaria, a markedly stronger scoring rate and the benefit of home support in Bursa. Bulgaria’s defensive record in qualifying has been fragile, and their prolonged inability to collect points suggests structural problems that will be difficult to rectify in the short term, particularly away from home. Therefore, it is suggested to for HT/FT, Turkey/Turkey.
Betting Tip 2: Both teams score? No
Rationale: Turkey have demonstrated attacking potency but also the ability to control matches and limit opposition chances. Bulgaria’s scoring record is extremely poor (1 goal in four group matches) and their inability to create consistent danger away from home reduces the likelihood that they will break through an organized Turkish defence. A Turkey win with Bulgaria failing to score is a realistic scenario given the away side’s recent performances.
This market captures the expectation that Turkey will win while keeping Bulgaria off the scoresheet; it offers greater value than the heavily-favoured straight home win but still reflects a consensus belief that Bulgaria will struggle to score.
Betting Tip 3: Under 3.5 goals
Rationale: Despite Turkey’s capacity to score freely against weaker opponents, the overall pattern of qualifiers and the pragmatic approach likely to be adopted in a fixture where Turkey can consolidate their position suggests that the match will not become a goal-fest. Turkey are more likely to manage the game and protect their defensive shape once in a winning position. Bulgaria’s weakness tends not to translate into sustained attacking pressure away from home, which makes an outcome with fewer than four combined goals probable.
For bettors seeking a compromise between the low-return home win and a higher-risk goals market, Under 3.5 is a sensible selection; it tolerates a solid Turkey scoring performance while guarding against an unlikely high-scoring collapse.
Statistics for Turkey vs Bulgaria
Turkey team news!
Coach: Vincenzo Montella.
Turkey currently occupy second place in Group E with 9 points after four matches. Their qualifying record reads 3 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, with a goals tally of 13 scored and 10 conceded. At home they have recorded 1 win and 1 defeat. In recent matches across all competitions Turkey show a form sequence of 3 wins and 2 defeats in their last five fixtures. Their most recent result was a convincing 4:1 home victory over Georgia, which underlines their scoring capability and confidence at present. Manager Vincenzo Montella will aim to harness home momentum and a potent attacking unit to secure another three points.
Bulgaria team news!
Coach: Aleksandar Dimitrov.
Bulgaria are struggling in Group E with 0 points and a record of 0 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats in qualifying; they have scored just once while conceding 16 goals. Their away record shows 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats. Bulgaria’s recent form across all competitions is very poor: in the last five matches they have 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats, including an emphatic 0:4 loss away to Spain in their most recent outing. With morale and goalscoring both clearly deficient, Bulgaria confront a difficult assignment in Bursa.
H2H statistics
Over the last five meetings between Turkey and Bulgaria across all competitions, Turkey have dominated the head-to-head with 4 wins and 1 draw; Bulgaria have not recorded a victory in those five encounters. The most recent direct meeting resulted in a 6:1 victory for Turkey away from home, underscoring the gulf between the teams in recent years.
Last results Turkey
In their last five matches across all competitions Turkey have registered 3 wins and 2 defeats. The current form line indicates a team capable of scoring freely while occasionally being exposed at the back — a profile that favours offensive dominance against a very weak opponent like Bulgaria.
Last results Bulgaria
Bulgaria’s last five matches show 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats. Their current form is clearly downwards, with defensive frailties and a lack of goals proving persistent problems. This poor sequence makes an upset in Bursa improbable unless there is a significant and immediate improvement.
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Conclusion
Turkey enter this fixture as clear favourites. The combination of superior form, greater goal threat, better recent head-to-head record, and home advantage all point towards a Turkish victory. Bulgaria’s structural difficulties — illustrated by an extremely poor defensive record and a complete absence of points in the group — make them unlikely to offer a sustained challenge. Our recommended primary outcome is a first-half and full-time home win. Complementary selections that align with this assessment are Both teams to score: No, and Under 3.5 goals.
