Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad Copa Prediction
The Copa del Rey semi-final first leg between Athletic Bilbao and Real Sociedad will take place on Wednesday, 11.02.2026 at 11:00 at San Mamés. This Basque derby in the cup semi-finals again pits two regional rivals with contrasting immediate form against one another: Athletic, managed by Ernesto Valverde, arrives with a mixed recent record, while Pellegrino Matarazzo’s Real Sociedad side travels on a run of 5 matches unbeaten. The last direct meeting between the clubs ended in a 1:1 draw, underscoring the tight, often cagey nature of their encounters. Given the importance of a semi-final tie and the atmosphere at San Mamés, tactical discipline and fine margins are likely to decide this fixture.
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Our betting prediction for Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad
Main Tip: Both teams score? No
Betting tip: Both teams do not score. Despite Real Sociedad’s excellent run of form and attacking potency, the prediction that both teams will not score rests on the expectation that Valverde will prioritise defensive organisation and tactical containment in a semi-final first-leg scenario. Athletic are capable of stifling rhythm through energetic pressing and compact lines at San Mamés; a disciplined home display could frustrate Real Sociedad’s attacking patterns. Additionally, cup fixtures between these sides frequently feature periods of conservative play, especially in the opening leg, which increases the plausibility of one side keeping a clean sheet. Best available odds from the supplied data: Both teams to score? NO at Betway with odds 1.84.
Tip 2: DC Athletic Bilbao/Draw
Betting prediction: Athletic Bilbao Double Chance. Athletic Bilbao are favoured in our main market selection for this fixture. Playing at San Mamés confers a significant advantage in a derby of this intensity: the crowd influence and familiarity with the long ball and pressing transitions that Ernesto Valverde’s side typically deploy can unsettle an opponent that is frequently on the front foot. Although Real Sociedad arrives in superior form, cup ties often tilt towards home resilience, and Athletic’s capacity to produce decisive attacking moments at home — as evidenced in their recent offensive displays — supports a home victory. Best available odds from the supplied data: DC at Paripesa with odds 1.46.
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Tip 3: Correct score — 1:1 Draw
Betting tip: 1:1 draw. The 1:1 correct-score forecast is included as a conservative alternative given the historical balance in this derby and the most recent direct meeting finishing 1:1. In cup semi-finals, especially in the first leg, coaches often adopt measured approaches; this can produce a competitive, tactical contest with each side finding the net once. The 1:1 outcome remains a commonly hit scoreline in fixtures of this nature and offers value as a contingency should the match evolve into a tightly contested, shared-scoring affair. Best odds for the 1:1 correct score were not specified in the supplied data; bettors should check specialist correct-score markets to identify the most attractive pricing.
Statistics for Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad
Athletic Bilbao team news!
Coach: Ernesto Valverde. Athletic Bilbao enter this semi-final first leg with a mixed sequence of results across competitions: in their last five outings they have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. That pattern points to inconsistency, yet it also indicates that Athletic can produce moments of attacking potency while remaining vulnerable at times. Valverde’s experience in cup competitions and his tactical acumen in setting up teams for key home fixtures are significant factors; he is likely to prioritise a disciplined, energetic performance at San Mamés where the club historically performs strongly. Their most recent match before this tie saw Athletic win at home by a notable scoreline, demonstrating an ability to score multiple goals when in form.
Real Sociedad team news!
Coach: Pellegrino Matarazzo. Real Sociedad arrive in robust form: in their last five matches across all competitions they have achieved 4 wins and 1 draw, remaining unbeaten in that span. Matarazzo’s side have shown consistency and attacking coherence during this period, converting chances and maintaining defensive solidity. Their last outing prior to this semi-final produced a convincing home victory, reinforcing confidence and belief. Real Sociedad’s momentum is a clear asset, but they must contend with the pressure of an away semi-final atmosphere and a well-drilled Athletic setup.
H2H statistics
The head-to-head record over the last five meetings in all competitions is highly balanced: Athletic Bilbao have won 2, Real Sociedad have won 1 and there have been 2 draws. The most recent direct encounter finished 1:1, reflecting the tight margins that usually separate these sides. Historical patterns between these teams show that matches are often competitive and closely contested, with neither side enjoying overwhelming dominance over the other.
Last results Athletic Bilbao
In their last five competitive matches Athletic Bilbao have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. Their current form can be described as mixed; the team has shown both attacking promise and defensive lapses, leading to fluctuating results. This inconsistency is a central factor when assessing Athletic’s prospects in the semi-final first leg.
Last results Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad’s last five competitive matches yield 4 wins and 1 draw, with no defeats in that sequence. Their current form is therefore strong and suggests the team is carrying momentum into this tie. That sustained run of positive results increases Real Sociedad’s confidence but does not eliminate the challenges posed by a hostile cup atmosphere at San Mamés.
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Conclusion
This Copa del Rey semi-final first leg represents a classic Basque derby in which home advantage, tactical approach and recent form will combine to determine the outcome. Our principal assessment favors Athletic Bilbao to win at San Mamés, reflecting the home-ground factor and Valverde’s capacity to prepare his side for high-stakes cup encounters (Tip 1 — best quoted at 1win with odds 2.27). Nonetheless, Real Sociedad’s unbeaten run and attacking quality mean the fixture is far from straightforward; a balanced, tight scoreline such as 1:1 remains a credible alternative prediction. The selection “Both teams do not score” (NO at 1win, odds 1.84) is supported by the anticipated conservative nature of a semi-final first leg, while Over 2.5 goals is also plausible given both sides’ ability to score and concede in open phases. Bettors should weigh home advantage, recent form, tactical tendencies of Valverde and Matarazzo, and the specific market prices available before placing stakes.
