Estonia vs Italy prediction
The World Cup Qualifying (Europe) fixture between Estonia and Italy will take place on Saturday, 11 October 2025 at 21:45 local time (GMT+3) at the A. Le Coq Arena. This Group I encounter has clear implications for both sides: Italy will seek to consolidate its position near the summit of the pool while Estonia must aim to salvage points at home to improve its standing. Italy arrive with superior form and goal-scoring returns, whereas Estonia have struggled to produce consistent results and defensive stability in the qualifying phase.
Check out all the UEFA World Cup Qualifiers 2026 predictions to spot the games that feature the experienced side against the underdogs.
Main Betting Tip: HT/FT, 2/2
Italy are the clear favourite on paper and in recent results. The Azzurri’s top players and superior squad depth, combined with a record of three wins and one defeat in the qualifying group so far and a potent attacking record (12 goals scored), make an away victory in the first half and full-time the most probable outcome. Estonia’s campaign has been inconsistent; they have managed just one win, no draws and four defeats in the group, and have conceded 13 goals. Tactical discipline from Italy, their ability to control possession and turn chances into goals, should see them impose their rhythm and convert opportunities.
Betting Tip 2: Both teams score? No
Betting tip: Both teams do not score (No). While Italy have shown attacking potency, they have also demonstrated the ability to manage matches and protect leads when required. Estonia’s home record in qualifying is poor (0 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats), and their attack has struggled to break down compact defences consistently. Given Italy’s superior control and Estonia’s defensive vulnerabilities, a controlled Italian win with Estonia failing to score is a realistic scenario. This market also reflects the statistical tendency for stronger sides to restrict the scoring opportunities of inferior opponents in qualifiers. Best odds for “Both teams to score — No” are 1.36 at 1xBet.
Betting Tip 3: Under 3.5 goals
Although Italy possess the firepower to score multiple times, international qualifiers often produce conservative scorelines when one side is markedly stronger: the favourite tends to prioritise a measured approach to secure points rather than exposing themselves to high-risk open play. Estonia’s defensive set-up will likely be compact, seeking to limit space and force Italy to work for openings. The available market recommendation is under 3.5 goals, which balances the prospect of Italy scoring more than once with the probability that the hosts will not contribute multiple goals. The best available listing for the Under 3.5 market is offered at 1xBet (market: Under 3.5 goals; specific odds not provided in the supplied data).
Have diversity in what can of betting slips you wish to wager by relying on the pack of tickets from the multibet tips.
Statistics for Estonia vs Italy
Estonia team news!
Manager: Thomas Häberli. Estonia enter this fixture having accumulated 3 points in Group I, occupying fourth position with a record of 1 win and 4 defeats, and a goals tally of 5 scored against 13 conceded. Their home form in qualifying is notably weak: 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats at the A. Le Coq Arena. The team’s recent performances indicate defensive frailties and limited offensive output against higher-calibre opposition. Under the guidance of manager Thomas Häberli, Estonia will likely focus on organizing compact defensive lines, attempting to frustrate Italy and exploiting set-piece situations or counters when opportunities arise. Expect a cautious, low-risk tactical approach designed to minimise space between lines and delay Italy’s progression through the thirds.
Italy team news!
Manager: Luciano Spalletti. Italy sit second in Group I with 9 points from four matches, recording three wins and one defeat, while producing 12 goals and conceding 7. Their away record in qualifying stands at 1 win and 1 defeat. Under manager Luciano Spalletti, Italy have displayed a blend of fluid attacking play and tactical intelligence. The squad depth and quality in attacking positions give Italy the flexibility to press high, rotate personnel and still maintain a consistent threat on goal. Defensive organisation remains generally robust, and the side has the experience to manage matches where they are expected to dominate possession and territory.
H2H statistics
The head-to-head record overwhelmingly favours Italy. In the last direct meeting between these nations the result was a 5:0 home win for Italy, and over the most recent five encounters across all competitions Estonia have not recorded a win or a draw — Italy have won all five meetings (Estonia 0 wins, 0 draws, Italy 5 wins). The historical sample underscores a persistent gulf in class that Estonia must overcome to get a positive result.
Last results Estonia
In their most recent five matches across competitions Estonia’s form reads: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats. The current form suggests inconsistency: a single victory provides some encouragement, but the number of defeats and goals conceded indicate vulnerabilities that stronger opponents can exploit. Their most recent result was a 0:0 home draw with Andorra, which speaks to a cautious and compact defensive performance but also to limited attacking penetration.
Last results Italy
Italy’s last five matches across competitions have produced 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. The Azzurri’s recent fixtures include high-scoring affairs and demonstrate an ability to both create and concede chances—most recently registering a thrilling 5:4 away result versus Israel. The pattern is one of offensive potency combined with occasional defensive lapses, yet the overall trend is positive and suggests Italy enter the Estonia match with confidence.
TIP: Download Instagram before you click here!
Conclusion
In conclusion, Italy are the clear favourites for this World Cup qualifying fixture. Their superior squad quality, more convincing recent results and dominant head-to-head history point strongly to an away victory. Estonia will attempt to set up in a disciplined defensive shape to limit Italy’s chances and aim to punish any errors, but the hosts’ lack of home wins and weaker defensive record make it difficult to expect an upset. The most balanced set of predictions therefore, is the HT/FT victory for Italy, Estonia failing to score, a game with fewer than 3.5 goals and Both Teams to Score NO.
