Ukraine vs Iceland WC Prediction
The World Cup Qualifying encounter between Ukraine and Iceland will take place on Sunday, 16 November 2025 at 8:00 PM GMT +3 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego. This Group D fixture has clear competitive implications as Ukraine sit second in the group with seven points while Iceland occupy third place on four points. Ukraine arrive with slightly better recent form and the advantage of playing at home; Iceland, despite a productive attacking record in the qualifiers, have been less consistent and are yet to register a positive away result in the group. The following preview offers a concise tactical and statistical assessment and presents our betting predictions ahead of the meeting.
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Betting prediction — Main tip: Home win (Tip 1)
We predict a home victory for Ukraine. Ukraine currently show stronger consistency both in results and momentum: they have collected seven points from four group matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat) and prevailed in their most recent competitive outing. Playing at Stadion Wojska Polskiego should reinforce that edge; Ukraine’s home record in qualifying to date is one win and one defeat, and the familiarity of the venue and home support are likely to favour Serhiy Rebrov’s side. Historically, the recent head-to-head record also tilts towards Ukraine (three wins in the last five meetings and a notable 5:3 victory in the last direct encounter), indicating a psychological advantage. Best available odd on the 1X2 market (provided data): Tip 1 at Betwinner with odd 1.66.
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Betting prediction — Both teams score? No
Our second betting prediction is that both teams will not score. Although Iceland have produced a respectable number of goals overall (11 scored in group play), they have also conceded frequently (9 goals conceded), and Ukraine have combined an ability to control matches with a pragmatic defensive approach under Serhiy Rebrov. Given Ukraine’s tendency to manage their matches at home and the competitive importance of the fixture, a tightly contested match with at least one team failing to score is a plausible outcome. Historical context also supports caution: matches between these sides have produced goals, but Ukraine’s tactical setup and recent form suggest they can stifle Iceland’s attacking threats. Best available odd on the BTTS market (provided data): Both teams to score — NO at Betwinner with odd 1.72.
Betting prediction — Over/Under: Under 2.5 goals
Our third prediction is Under 2.5 goals. While Iceland’s goal total in qualifying implies attacking dynamism, their away record and Ukraine’s home discipline point to a lower-scoring affair. Ukraine have scored eight and conceded seven in group play; those numbers do not suggest free-scoring, open exchanges when the fixture’s context and stakes are considered. Managers often prioritise not losing in such pivotal group encounters, and this can depress aggregate goal totals. Therefore, Under 2.5 is a sensible expectation for prudential betting. Best available odds on Under 2.5 goals is 1.72 on Betwinner.
Betting prediction — Correct score: 1:0 Home win for Ukraine
Our fourth prediction is a precise 1:0 home win for Ukraine. This scoreline aligns with the principal view of a narrow, disciplined Ukrainian victory: Ukraine win by a single goal margin while keeping a clean sheet. The forecast reflects Ukraine’s recent capacity to grind out results and Iceland’s vulnerability away from home. A 1:0 outcome is a conservative, low-risk projection consistent with the Under 2.5 expectation. Best available odds on Correct Score 1:0 is 5.50 on Paripesa.
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Statistics for Ukraine vs Iceland
Ukraine team news!
Ukraine head into this fixture in second place in Group D with seven points from four matches: two wins, one draw and one defeat. They have scored eight goals and conceded seven, showing a positive but not emphatically dominant goal difference. At home in qualifying, their record stands at one win and one defeat. Their most recent competitive result is a 2:1 victory at home against Azerbaijan, which should boost confidence. Under Rebrov, Ukraine have exhibited a balance between attack and control and are likely to approach this match with an emphasis on structured defending and efficient use of chances.
Iceland team news!
Iceland sit third in Group D with four points gathered from one win, one draw and two defeats. They have found the net 11 times but have also conceded nine goals, pointing to both attacking intent and defensive frailty. Their away qualifying record is without a positive result to date (no wins, no draws, one defeat recorded in the supplied data). Iceland’s most recent outing produced a 2:2 home draw against France, demonstrating their capacity to score against strong opposition but also their ongoing defensive issues. The absence of an identified manager in the supplied data suggests that tactical clarity and leadership details should be confirmed ahead of kick-off.
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H2H statistics
In the last direct meeting the teams met in a high-scoring contest that finished 5:3 in favour of Ukraine (away win). Over the five most recent encounters between the two nations, Ukraine have won three times, the sides have drawn once and Iceland have one victory. That historical split indicates Ukraine have generally been the stronger side in recent confrontations, while matches between these teams have often been competitive and capable of producing multiple goals.
Last results — Ukraine
Over their last five matches in all competitions Ukraine’s record reads: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. Their recent form therefore reflects a positive trend, with momentum restored by the latest victory against Azerbaijan. This sequence suggests a side in reasonable competitive shape and confident at home.
Last results — Iceland
In their last five matches across all competitions Iceland have recorded: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats. That pattern reveals inconsistency and a recent downturn in form, particularly notable in away contexts where they have yet to secure points in the qualifying cycle as detailed above.
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Conclusion
On balance, Ukraine enter this match as favourites. They have superior recent form, home advantage and a favourable head-to-head record. Iceland possess attacking capabilities, as evidenced by their goals scored, but they have been vulnerable defensively and have not yet found a reliable away performance in this qualifying group. For those seeking a conservative, value-oriented set of betting ideas: a Ukraine victory (Tip 1) paired with Both Teams Not To Score and Under 2.5 goals aligns with the competitive context. The most probable specific outcome, based on available information and tactical expectations, is a narrow 1:0 win for Ukraine. As always, bettors should verify live market odds and any late team news before placing stakes.
